 | Full blog post with all the tables here. January 1st, 2021, I bought $100 of following and turned it into a homemade crypto index fund: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, XRP, Litecoin, Polkadot, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Chainlink. Below is the latest update on the progress of the 2021 Experiment. tl;dr:
Month Twenty-Eight – UP 95%The 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund consists of: BTC, ETH, USDT, XRP, Litecoin, DOT, BCH, ADA, BNB, and LINK. April highlights for the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio:
April Ranking and Dropout ReportTop Ten dropouts since January 2021: twenty-eight months into the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, four cryptos have dropped out: Chainlink, Litecoin, Polkadot and Bitcoin Cash. They have been replaced by MATIC, SOL, DOGE, and USDC. April Winners and LosersApril Winners – BNB was the clear winner this month, up +6%. April Losers – XRP turned in the worst performance in April (-9%). Overall Update – BNB dominates, 50% of cryptos in green, BTC approaching break even point, BCH worst performingAs has been the case for much of the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, BNB remains the dominant crypto in the portfolio, by far. It is up +767%, the $100 investment into BNB twenty-eight months ago is now worth $869. ETH is in distant second place, up +150%, the $100 now worth $251. At the bottom, BCH is the worst performing of the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio cryptos at this point in the Experiment, down -66% since January 2021. Total Market Cap for the Entire Cryptocurrency Sector:As a sector, crypto is up +51% since January 2021. You may notice that the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio has produced better returns than the overall crypto market cap (+95% vs. +51%) over the twenty-eight month life of the 2021 Portfolio. This is a bit of an outlier: the rest of the Top Ten Experiments are well behind over their respective market caps in their respective time frames. Here are the latest figures:
Although the 2021 Top Ten approach has held up quite well compared to the overall market so far, I expect to see it fall behind eventually, like the other experiments. Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $775B in January 2021. Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2021 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: $2.6T in October 2021. Bitcoin Dominance:BitDom has bounced a bit in recent months, now sitting at 46.8%. Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2021:Overall, the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio is up +95%. The initial $1000 investment twenty-eight months ago, on New Year’s Day, 2021, is worth $1,955. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2021 Top Ten Experiment, to give you a sense of perspective as we go along: Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios As most readers are aware, this is the sixth year of an Experiment I started back in January of 2018, at the height of the last crypto bull run. Where do we stand if we combine six years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments?
So overall? Taking the six portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom line: After a $6,000 total investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $12,523. That’s up +109% on the combined portfolios. The peak for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiment Portfolios was November 2021’s all time high of +533%. To visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: In summary: That's a +109% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for six straight years. Comparison to S&P 500I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P 500 Index is up +11% since January 1st, 2021. The initial $1k investment I put into crypto twenty-eight months ago would be worth $1,110 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. The 2021 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is up +95% over the same time period - the initial $1k investment in crypto twenty-eight months ago is now worth $1,955. That’s a difference of $845 on a $1k investment in twenty-eight months. What about in the longer term? What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first six years of the Top Top Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After six $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 my portfolio would be worth $7,580. That is up +26% since January 2018 compared to a +109% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. To help provide perspective, here’s a chart showing the combined six year ROI for the Crypto Top Ten Experiment vs. the S&P up to this point: Conclusion:To the long time followers of the Top Ten Experiments, thank you so much for sticking around so long. For those just getting into crypto, I hope these reports will help prepare you for the highs and lows that await on your crypto adventures. Buckle up, go with the flow, think long term, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, and most importantly, try to enjoy the ride. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. A reporting note: I'll focus on 2023 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis this year, so expect two reports per month. April’s extended report is the one you’re reading now (the 2021 Top Ten Portfolio). You can check out the latest 2018 Top Ten (the OG Experiment), 2019 Top Ten, 2020 Top Ten, and 2022 Top Ten reports as well. [link] [comments] |
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