It's been roughly three months since I last did this type of commentary. Previous one's: pre-crash and post-crash. This post will compare the previous Bitcoin cycles to the current one and will showcase the bullish or bearish scenarios.

Current Bitcoin Cycle Compared to Previous Cycles

https://preview.redd.it/hqcbtb3wywe71.png?1662&format=png&auto=webp&s=02c10ee90f58e81e066533a67319e9afaa1b9281

Key Considerations:

• I took the BTC charts of each cycle from each halving period until the market peak. An exemption is made for the first cycle in which there is no market data from; instead, the data starts from July 17, 2010.
• All the cycle comparisons start at the most recent halving on May 11, 2020.
• As of today, we are 447 days in the current cycle.

Key Takeaways

• BTC's market peaks have diminishing returns. It's much easier to climb from $1 to $100 compared to climbing from $10,000 to $100,000.
• Since entering the market, BTC's cycles are longer. We only have two data points (2013 & 2017) to confirm this but this is tied to the market theory.
• Assuming that the market will have diminishing returns, will grow slower, and will peak later: this cycle was ahead of schedule. A similar even occurred during the 2012-2013 cycle, but the recent crash essentially brought Bitcoin back to Earth.
• We're on now on pace for a 'typical' Bitcoin bubble. The 2020 growth was unprecedented, largely cause by institutional involvement. The whole Tesla debacle didn't help either.

Possible Outcomes

• While it wasn't clear back in May whether this time is different or not different; It's quite clear now. Despite the institutional investments, bigger money, and adoption from the likes of Paypal, Visa, Apple, and other companies as well as nations like El Salvador, it's more likely that this time is not different. Still, for the sake of keeping an open mind, I'll present both outcomes
  • "This time is different": Bitcoin would have to retain the 64K all-time-high (ATH) by late August and be within the 70K to 90K range until September to be in pace with the 2017-18 cycle. While I won't immediately dismiss the possibility, it would be one hell of a run if it did.
  • "This time is not different": A 'typical' Bitcoin bubble would entail a longer cycle with diminishing returns. That would mean we continue on this current path, slowly treading upwards with some minor bumps in the road and retain the ATH by late 2021 or even early 2022.
    • Just some hindsight here, the 2012-2013 'mini bubble', which is often compared to this year's mini bubble reclaimed it's ATH after ~212 days. As of writing, we are 110 days away from market peak and 83 days away from the May 10 crash.
    • If we were to take a similar path with the 2012-2013 cycle, we'd be reclaiming 64K by late November or December. But again, this cycle is supposed to be longer so reclaiming the ATH can also take longer. Just some stuff to note; not a prediction at all.

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Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish—if you think this time is different or not different—It's important to remain flexible for either situation. We can only react to the market; your planning will determine how well you react.

I am a firm believer that no one knows shit about fuck. Heck, Bitcoin can reclaim its all time high next week and all of this gets thrown out the window. This is just a commentary on the current and past Bitcoin cycles so take it with as much salt as your taste buds prefer.