A regular DCA plan from BTC’s Dec-2017 ATH would gain at least 300% today. I made a quantitative analysis using various DCA models to compare, and also to check whether “the bloody weekend” is a myth.

Everyone wants to buy cheap and sell high. As absurd as it sounds, a very common phenomenon “buy high sell low” is often noticed. However, if you have bought in at the previous cycle’s ATH, it may not necessarily be a bad thing. By looking at the historical price of BTC so far, we can see it always recovered to its previous ATH.

Today, I made a quantitative analysis using many different DCA models, i.e. daily, weekly and monthly deposits. In particular, I also look at the day during the week the deposits were made. We often hear about the “bloody weekend” or the “Sunday dip”, but how true are those? Or is it just a myth?

Bitcoin reached its previous all time high of $19,783 on 17 December 2017. This is followed by a bearish period. Let’s assume you made a DCA plan of buying $100 BTC every week until today (weekly DCA plan) and compare it to a daily DCA plan.

DCA plan illustration

All the weekly DCA plans return at least 310% today. The Friday DCA plan returns the highest (313.1%), followed by Monday DCA plan (312.6%). Wednesday and Thursday plans return the lowest (both just under 311%). Interestingly, Saturday and Sunday plans both return 311.6%, which is slightly below the daily DCA plan (311.8% return).

So in this case, the “weekend dip” is actually a myth. If it was true, the Saturday and Sunday plans would return more than that. Not surprisingly, all weekly DCA plans return quite similar gains, compared to the daily DCA plan.

On the other hand, the gains from different monthly DCA plans vary more significantly depending on the day the deposit is made. In this example, a mid-month DCA plan returns 320.8% (highest), whereas the 22nd-day DCA plan returns the lowest (309%).

In conclusion, all regular DCA plans for BTC from its previous ATH to date result in at least 300% gain. The gains do not vary a lot, regardless of the day the deposit is made during the week. Monthly DCA plans experience higher variations.