Almost half a coin, target is at least 1 full btc before 2024.

I am very confident that bitcoin will make it and turn a great investment for everyone , im confident when i talk with family and friends....but this is the first bear market for me and when the price goes lower and lower and everybody laughs at your confidence i make mayself a question...am i perhaps a bit naive ? My average pruchase price should be about 40k if i would guess, is there any scenario where btc will fail to get to his all time high in the next 4-5 years. Please express your honest opinion and not just hopium lol. I will not sell a single satoshi before at very least 2025. Hold tight fellas <3