The cryptocurrency market has witnessed notable price movements since the beginning of the year, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the charge. Despite Bitcoin’s impressive run, the much-anticipated altcoin season has yet to materialize.
Altcoin enthusiasts are questioning whether the current trends in Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins are sufficient to spark this market shift.
Bitcoin’s Market Dominance
Bitcoin continues to hold a commanding presence in the cryptocurrency market. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s dominance remains over 50%, signifying that more than half of the market capitalization is tied to BTC.
This high dominance level is a significant factor preventing the onset of an altcoin season, as it limits the market share available for other cryptocurrencies.
The Altcoin Season Index: A Measure Of Market Shifts
A critical metric for assessing the onset of altcoin season is the Altcoin Season Index from blockchaincenter.net. Currently, this index stands at 35. For an official altcoin season to be declared, the index needs to reach 75.
This threshold is achieved when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Despite some individual altcoins showing strong performance, the broader market trends indicate that we are not yet in an altcoin season.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has shown significant upward movements. Currently trading at approximately $3,889, Ethereum has maintained a strong bull trend, as indicated by its Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Historically, Ethereum’s rallies have often signaled the beginning of altcoin season. However, broader market metrics must align for this trend to be confirmed.
While Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate headlines, other altcoins are making waves with remarkable gains. Pepe (PEPE) has surged by over 1,000% in the past three months, outperforming Bitcoin by a substantial margin.
Similarly, Dogwifhat (WIF) has increased by nearly 900% in the same period, demonstrating strong bullish trends. These lesser-known altcoins are attracting significant investor interest, contributing to localized shifts in market cap.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is approximately $2.55 trillion. Within this, altcoins hold less than 50%, with Ethereum alone accounting for 18%.
Investors often seek higher short-term gains by shifting their investments from Bitcoin to altcoins, especially when Bitcoin’s price stabilizes. This behavior can drive up altcoin prices and redistribute market cap towards these smaller cryptocurrencies.
Despite the strong performance of individual altcoins, several factors are holding back the broader altcoin season. Bitcoin’s high price can be a barrier for new traders, who may prefer to invest in lower-priced altcoins.
Additionally, for a full-fledged altcoin season to commence, a more significant redistribution of market cap from Bitcoin to altcoins is required. This shift is not solely dependent on the performance of a few altcoins but requires a more widespread and consistent outperformance of Bitcoin across the top 50 cryptocurrencies.
Featured image from Pintu, chart from TradingView
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