An interesting thought experiment: How much Bitcoin would one need to be able to retire today similar to the 4% rule?

The commonly quoted 4% rule in the FIRE community is likely too conservative for a 100% (or majority) bitcoin portfolio. The assumptions in the 4% rule are 10% annual growth and 3% annual inflation, allowing for 7% real return.

Bitcoin has an average annual return of 1,576%

Let's assume, perhaps conservatively, that the real return for bitcoin in the medium to long-term will be somewhere around 100% annually. Obviously, some years will be negative and other years will exceed this. I'm using 100% as a starting point.

I used a tool called cFiresim to estimate the success rate of a 47 year retirement starting today and ending in 2070 with a starting portfolio balance of $150k and annual $40k spend adjusted for inflation annually. I was able to achieve a 100% success rate. In the simulation, I used a 100% cash portfolio with the Growth of cash set to 100%.

• 50% annual rate of return gives a 98.10% success rate.
• 40% annual rate of return gives a 63.81% success rate.

TL;DR: Given the assumptions, this would mean that if you have 5 Bitcoin, you can retire on $40k/yr today.

EDIT: Some comments have highlighted that assuming a 100% average rate of return to be too high. I'll post some results below assuming a 40%, 30%, and 25% rate of return.

• At a 40% rate of return, 6 BTC or $180k yields a 98% success rate.
• At a 30% rate of return, 7 BTC or $210k yields a 81% success rate.
• At a 25% rate of return, 8 BTC or $240k yields a 75% success rate.

It seems like somewhere between 5 to 10 BTC would be sufficient to retire based on assumptions.