Anyone else not buying this rally?

I'm a long term bull on crypto, but I am skeptical of this recent rally (as far as it holding). Bitcoin has rallied almost 50% in less than a month, in the middle of a crypto winter. I tend to think that I've been through enough bull/bear cycles to sense how these things play out. I used to always think "this is it, we're taking off!" only to watch it fall right back down to where it was before the rally, or even lower. I just don't see any reason to be bullish between now and the next halving personally. I do see Bitcoin crossing $100k after the next halving at some point in 2024-2025, so I'm not some kind of doomer or a short seller. Just trying to be realistic.