A surge in CME BTC volumes and open interest highlights institutional investors’ growing interest in Bitcoin. Will it be enough to keep the price in the current range?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently battling to hold the $34,000 level after a stellar rally and short squeeze saw its price push above $35,000 on Oct. 23.
In an Oct. 24 market update, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted that after seven months of consolidation, Bitcoin’s upward move melted the $32,000 resistance “like butter.” He expects that the upcoming monthly resistance is unlikely to be a hurdle, saying:
“It would make sense to see either a rapid continuation to mid-range ($43K) or short-term consolidation between support resistance at $32-$35K before continuation.”
As Cointelegraph mentioned in an earlier price update:
“Successive daily closes above the $31,700 level would be notable, as daily or weekly higher high candles above this level puts the price above a key pivot point and enters territory not seen since May 2022.”
Regarding the catalysts for this week’s price move, Edwards agrees that the recent fervor over what looks to be a sooner-than-later Securities and Exchange Commission approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is contributing to the rally, but he also cites a handful of other near-term factors.
LayerTwo Labs founder Paul Sztorc concurred, telling Cointelegraph, “I think we’re seeing meaningful inklings of a broader decoupling of Bitcoin from equities, and this divergence of sorts has taken a lot of market participants by surprise.”
Potential concerns related to “foreign conflict and rising macroeconomic uncertainty, expectations among traders had been focused on a forthcoming dip that ultimately didn’t materialize.” But Sztorc explained that during the U.S. regional banking crisis, the market underwent “a similar divergence,” which resulted in “Bitcoin outperforming then as well.”
Sztorc believes that the bulk of the recent divergent price action is that “a lot of traders and investors are now accumulating ahead of that event.”
“I also think there are expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely have to start easing monetary policy soon because of the issue of rapidly rising yields. More specifically, traders are probably anticipating this easing by way of the Fed having to revert to some form of yield-curve control, the consequences of which tends to be monetary debasement.”
CME Bitcoin open interest surpasses 100,000 BTC
Further proof that institutional investors are warming up to Bitcoin and the idea that a spot BTC ETF will be approved comes from the CME, where Bitcoin open interest hit a new record above 100,000 BTC. Beyond the bare price speculation, the takeaway here is that if institutional investors are accumulating spot Bitcoin, they then need to hedge this position, hence the surge in volumes and open interest seen at CME and other places.
CME BTC futures OI has breached 100k BTC for the first time ever.
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) October 24, 2023
While offshore perp OI shrank by 26,735 BTC yesterday, CME's OI grew by 4,380 BTC. pic.twitter.com/kjKBRYCoSX
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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