Bitcoin is frustratingly calm and volatility is near historic lows!

Such flat behavior in ‘Bitcoin Annualized Value’ was last seen over three years ago in the months after the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash! This low volatility usually follows a bear market (re-accumulation phase).

Bitcoin annualized realized volatility annotated chart. Source: Checkmate/X

Compared with previous bear markets, whales are holding back from selling while still entering reaccumulation, and the bullish case for what comes next is strengthening. It is not just whales; day traders are also giving market cyclist Cole Garner cause for optimism.

Bitcoin new addresses annotated chart. Source: Ali/X

Asian buyers continue to dominate the day-to-day trading landscape, and this is just as important an indicator that BTC price upside lies ahead, not behind the market. To add to the accumulation argument, Bitcoin wallet numbers have preserved their own uptrend despite the BTC price returning below $30,000 after local highs.

BTC/USD chart with trading session dominance data. Source: Cole Garner/Twitter

Bitcoin network fundamentals are in two minds this week, echoing a seriously indecisive market mood. After dropping by just over 3% at its previous automated readjustment two weeks ago, Bitcoin network difficulty is due to recoup some of those losses. According to estimates from Bitcoin education resource Bitrawr, difficulty should increase by around 1.2% to come within inches of new all-time highs.

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Bitcoin difficulty estimator graphic (screenshot). Source: Bitrawr

Turning to hash rate, a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend is what arguably characterizes the current setup. Hash rate values vary considerably by estimate, but after recent all-time highs, spikes in activity have cooled in recent weeks.