Bitcoin is in up only mode for the next 5 years.

We all agree the world is just beginning to enter a deep global recession.

There are three scenarios I see for bitcoin.

1) Rate cuts lead to a massive bull market.

2) Rates stay high and bitcoin acts like a safe haven asset which leads to a massive bull market.

3) Rates stay high and bitcoin acts like a risk asset where it falls alongside stocks.

So many people believe bitcoin will act like a risk asset and fall. These people do not understand what bitcoin actually is. Bitcoin is not a stock, it has no earnings, it is not reliant on debt markets or sensitive to interest rates, it is a scarce commodity.

First of all the scarcity alone will see it rise when measured against a falling dollar index and secondly bitcoin is a better safe haven than gold because it is better than gold at all of the characteristics that make gold a safe haven, ie outside of the financial system, not reliant on debt and limited in supply.

This would imply that no matter if rates are cut because of a recession or rates are held high during a recession bitcoin will enter a massive bull market.

There may be a temporary initial fall due to a lack of liquidity in the initial days of a stock market crash, just as gold fell in the initial days of the 2008 crisis before it entered a massive bull market. But ultimately bitcoin will rise significantly over the next 3 to 5 years no matter if rates are cut or rates stay high during a recession. At the same time the stock market bond market and realestate market will be falling and stagnating for years because of a global debt crisis.

Most people cannot imagine a world where stocks bonds and realestate are all collapsing while bitcoin is rising but it is inevitable. Bitcoin will rise alongside gold whether rates are cut or rates remain high. Either way bitcoin will be the best performing asset over the next 3 to 5 years as the world deals with a severe inflationary recession.