 | I have been looking into at what multiple Bitcoin has been decelerating (taking longer time to reach next peak), and on the HODL Waves chart, it became an obvious pattern. Once Measured, it seems to be between 1.6 - 1.68x (per cycle). (Super exciting if it were 1.618, but its slightly off, so what - fractals both speed up and slow down). My 2nd theory, is that we have a 2 peak larger pattern, that includes a double peak [(2013: Peak 1 - 2), and (2017)], and my theory is that this repeats. Just on a larger scale. I noticed that the timeframes are longer, and the patterns seem to be on point. For instance, on the 2nd picture, I drew a red box around the areas where I thought we may still be. I measured this new area, and the old one. The old area, bump 1 - bump 2 (prior to peak 1 of 2013) was from Jan 2012, to August 2012 = 8 Months. I decided to measure the distance between our last bump up, and the one we just hit at 64k. This was from July 2019 - April 14, 2021. 21 months. So I break out calculator. We have 2 different halvings we crossed. So lets calculate 8 * 1.618 = 12.96, and again 12.94 * 1.618 = 20.94 months. This is VERY accurately calculating the run we just had from our last bump up (last bump after 2017 peak). IF I am correct, if we look closely at that bump 2, it has a pattern of flattening out, before 8 months takes it up to peak 1 of 2013. 21 months from April 2021, is Jan 2023. This is what I expect this bull run to hit just for peak1. It wont peak this december, it will peak next one (december-january ish). IF I am right... the 49 days it took from Aug 16 2012 - October 4, 2012 == 49 * 1.618 * 1.618 = 128 days. Our last peak : April 14, 2021 + 128 days = August 20, 2021. I am obviously skeptical. BUT that being said. IF We peak out on Aug 20, 2021, and make a run back down near 30k after that... I am going to start getting very excited about the possibility. And correct me if I am wrong, but the pattern back in 2013, it tops out Oct 4, and then bottoms out again on October 27, 2013. If we took 23 days * 1.618 * 1.618 = 60.2 days. So IF it does top out on August 20, 2021, the pattern should bottom out 60 days later.. October 19, 2021. That will be our lowest point going forward. I gave enough specifics to get completely TORN apart. Let's see how this brave, foolish synopsis goes. Cheers! [link] [comments] |
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