BTC and Liquidity

The current market situation is a combination of two negative liquidity vectors

acting simultaneously, which explains the

intensity of the recent movement in crypto assets. On the one hand,

we observe a significant contraction in dollar liquidity, estimated

at around US$ 300 billion, largely caused by the increase

in the Treasury General Account (TGA).

This movement represents a direct drain of dollars from the

financial system: when the Treasury accumulates cash, less liquidity

circulates among banks, money markets, and risk assets. On the other

hand, this process was aggravated by the new US government shutdown,

which reinforced the Treasury's defensive behavior.

Unlike previous cycles, the TGA was not used as a

buffer after the last shutdown; on the contrary, the government chose to

preserve and even expand its cash reserves, further deepening the liquidity “air pocket”

we are now facing.

This combination creates a particularly hostile environment for assets

that are highly sensitive to marginal liquidity, such as Bitcoin. The recent weakness

of BTC, therefore, comes as no surprise.

Bitcoin continues to behave as one of the most

efficient thermometers of global liquidity in dollars: when the tide goes out, it reacts

quickly; when liquidity returns, it tends to be one of the first to

price in the regime change.

The crucial point is to understand that this movement is macro and mechanical,

not structural. There is no invalidation of thesis, adoption, or long-term fundamentals here, only temporary lack of dollars available

for risk.

The most important aspect, again, is time. Signs indicate that

this shutdown should be resolved later this week, which would remove the

last major short-term obstacle to liquidity. From there, the

scenario is likely to reverse.