Building hype: How PlanB and some mathematics led most people on this sub to believe BTC would reach 100k by 2021’s end

You probably believed in it, too. Despite being a joke today, people were given hopium reasons to accept it as truth.

It’s 2019 and there’s no pandemic. Crypto is recovering from a bad 2018, and in March a new metric pops up: the so-called Stock-to-Flow model. Used to forecast gold’s and silver’s prices, PlanB applied it to Bitcoin and published this chart:

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https://preview.redd.it/weui8hbc3lt91.jpg?512&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6718d700fb81a3bf39a6373920eb2b01f18d9598

Needless to say, the crypto world went nuts. By extrapolating some data, everyone could see that 100k was on the menu.

“Hey, if the model fits the past so good, the future has been revealed!”

To add to everyone’s deep voice whispering that it could be possible, the hype was also joined by countless interviews about the model and by no one less than Max Keiser, a guy who probably knows more about BTC than the average user of this sub, regardless of you liking him or not.

So you, we folks, average Joes, see some nice math, good charts and folks that are supposedly more knowledgeable than us advertising north and south that BTC will reach 100k EOY 2021. You think: “if all of these people that are smarter than me say the same thing, it must be true”.

Then the headlines started. In June 2020, Forbes published an article saying that it could happen. CNBC also published opinions of rich folks “bulls” on it. Michael Novogratz also bought the hype. Even in June 2021 these predictions were also shoved up our faces.

So if you already have big names delivering hopium and thought it was big, wait until you read that PlanB released a prediction of an ATH of $288k a bit after Dec 2021. Are you not entertained?

So far, everyone but a few is convinced that $100k is a matter of a short time.

It was not only until October/November of 2021 that people realized that the prophecy could not and probably would not be fulfilled.

As December approached, it was clear that $100k would not be reached, as said by PlanB himself.

Finally, in June 2022 he said that he was wrong and that he thought that BTC was indeed going to $100k:

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https://preview.redd.it/k0q0fyae3lt91.jpg?631&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d77f632a5a51eb9ceafbed17c99c27e51c9e370

So you say “yeah reddito321, what the f*ck is your point?”

As of today, S2F is at its lowest correlation point:

https://preview.redd.it/855v14zf3lt91.jpg?1196&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9555118369c2e28eb19fffe125246a2a92fa8289

Does it mean that the model failed? Not necessarily, but it means that, even with math, regression tools and such, no one can predict the market.

We’re in a bear now, but the bull will eventually come back. Influencers paid shillers will try to sell you the next big thing. Other "mathematically accurate models" that promise wonders will appear.

That being said, invest wisely and take everything, be it from Max Keiser or your mom, with a pinch of salt.

If you have a stable income and don't overinvest, the journey is way calmer.

Godspeed folks, see you on the moon!