Capitulation Theater: How Wall Street Is Engineering Fake Bitcoin Panic

The squeeze is producing less and less for the traders who churn. Overnight, coins younger than 7 days generated almost all of the “profit” being taken, which is a clear tell. Coins held a year or more from much lower prices aren’t moving; the bulk of gains is coming from short-term swaping back and forth on a 2–3% move, not from long-term holders unloading.

There’s a loud narrative right now that “long-term Bitcoin holders are finally selling” and that big players have moved entirely into the paper/ETF market.

On-chain data is showing something very different.

In the most recent window shown here:

• The vast majority of BTC spent comes from coins held < 1.5 years.
• Coins held 1.5+ years are barely moving. Their UTXOs just sit there. You can see in the data they are no longer selling the rises (like we've seen over night)

Short-term ETF churn and algo trading are doing a great job of looking like capitulation, but you can’t claim that long-term holders are dumping when:

• Their coins aren’t actually moving on-chain, and
• The spend is overwhelmingly concentrated in the recent-buyer cohorts.

In other words:

• ETFs and short-term tourists are getting shaken out.
• Real HODLers are doing the opposite at these levels... they’re not selling.

You can play all the games you want in paper BTC, but on-chain is where the truth lives.

As always: knowledge is power.