Determine a Rational Valuation in an Irrational Financial System

What is the Rational Valuation of Bitcoin in the context of an irrational Financial System? A short Essay:

Introduction: We know that an infinitely expanding money supply against a finite resource leads to an infinitely increasing relative value. The question is, does the relative value increase at a rate greater than or less than other investment vehicles and inflation at large. For example a forever annual increase or 3% eternally is still not a good investment, even if the value is forever increasing.

There is no theoretical cap on BTC if there is no cap on USD. As such any price of BTC now is a discount to what it will be in the future. Most can understand that BTC is the only globally transmittable and independently verifiable finite resource that can be exchanged globally instantly. That is a value.

But how do we evaluate it's worth relative to real $$ terms?

Is BTC akin to a commodity like Gold? Is BTC going to be a reserve Assets, like Oil, used by Nation States? Is BTC akin to equity markets or a basis for speculation and derivatives? Is BTC akin to real estate?

For my calculations, I am using a circulating supply of around 15 million BTC to account for lost coins.

Gold has a rate of increase of 3% supply year over year. It is less scarce than BTC as a result. Most people in Gold markets are just trading paper gold and ETFs, not physically accounted bullion. Current Market cap is $18 trillion. If BTC attained 10% of this market share as a safe haven asset, each BTC would be worth around $1.2 million each.

The world has about 1.57 trillion barrels of oil. It is traded ike a commodity and the USD is the main unit of account. BRICS could move to using BTC for it. We use 100 million BPD or 36.5 billion barrels per year (we run out 2067 if consumption is flat). Daily exchange of The USD to account for the 36.5 billion at $70 per barrel is $2.55 trillion. If BTC replaced the dollar for the exchange of oil alone and nothing else in international trade, and if all 15 million BTC circulating is used to this end, BTC would need to be worth 170,000 to sustain this function. If it expanded to include all international trade at $31 trillion, you arrive at $2.1 million per BTC.

If BTC is destined to be a new financial instrument for gambling, the US M2 money supply is $21.22 trillion. But the currency and credit derivatives on paper for all of the positions related to money trading for the USA is actually closing in on $635 trillion. I'm not making this up. To allow positions to actually be backed by hard currency like BTC would means 1 BTC would need to be worth $42.33 million to accomplish this role.

If BTC should instead be rooted and based on the only other truly finite resource in the world, real estate, consider the global real estate valuation of $634 trillion. Ironically it is almost 1:1 with the credit and derivatives market. I don't feel the need to run the numbers again, as you probably get the point.

Limitations of this thought exercise: I presupposed 15 million BTC would be active in a role of sitting passively, like real estate, or being traded around the clock like credit derivatives (which it is). Realistically, this number may be lower as more people simply HOD, reducing the total dormant Bitcoin and increasing the valuation further.

I presuppose that the USD grows weaker and that BTC is picked up internationally to circumvent the dollar and sanctions. This would rapidly accelerate adoption. The usage of BTC to circumvent tariffs and trade barriers under Trump is also high. This also ignores the plan of the USA to buy up 1 million BTC as several decades HODL as a strategic reserve and presumes no other country does the same.

This primarily counts on BTC being used as an accounting tool that is verifiable for international trade.

TL;DR - BTC can be worth $1.2 million of it captures 10% of the Gold Market Share as a savings tool. $2.1 million per BTC of it is adopted as a sanction dodging tool for oil trades by OPEC and BRICS for collateral for global shipping $42.33 million per BTC of it is treated as a credit derivatives accounting tool or real estate accounting tool for collateral.