Does the BTC halving actually matter in the future?

Hey guys I know this question might sound stupid af but since the current inflation rate of BTC is around 1.7% or so I'm wondering if the "bullrun with halving" mentality and market expectation is justified. It makes total sense for me that previous halvings had an notorious impact on the supply issuance of BTC but is it still as relevant for the next 2-3 halvings or is it pure market speculation in your opinion since "it happened like that before". I'd personally say that a bullrun could happen at any other point and that the "cycles" aren't as reliable since the analyzed timeframe is too small. But if you can change my mind I'd appreciate it. Greetings