Each Halving Prices Out a Different Economic Group Trying to Obtain 1 Bitcoin - British HODL

One way of looking at the halving is which groups are effectively priced out when they occur.

First Halving: November 28th, 2012 - $12.40 (Start) - $662.80 (End)

This priced out extremely poor people, for whom even a single USD would be hard to expend. By the end of this cycle, many people in poor developing nations were priced out as ~$700 can exceed a year's income. The bottom billion were effectively out.

Second Halving: July 9th, 2016 - $651.80 (Start) - $8,738.80 (End)

Most people in developing nations and working poor in advanced economies. Many people in the United States don't even have $1,000 for an emergency. By the end of this cycle they were effectively priced out.

Third Halving: May 11th, 2020 - $8,579.80 (Start) - $30k-60k? (Projected End)

Current cycle. The price of a single Bitcoin would be a strain on many lower middle-class families today. As few may have nearly $30,000 to spend on a full coin. (DCA is your friend!)

Fourth Halving: April 2024 (Projected) - $30k-60k? (Projected Start) - $100k-400k? (Projected End)

Low single-digit millionaires may have a difficult time buying a full Bitcoin at the end of this cycle as most of their wealth is tied up in real estate or other non-liquid assets. If the ETFs are approved and turbo-charge Bitcoin, we could be looking at a high 6-figure or low 7-figure price by the end.

Fifth Halving: 2028-2032 (Projected)

This halving could start to price out high net worth individuals. It all depends on adoption (including nation states or large corporations), ETFs, nothing crazy happening to the protocol itself, etc.; but obtaining 1 Bitcoin as this cycle ends, perhaps in 2032, may be beyond the reach of anyone but very wealthy individuals.

Sixth Halving: 2032-2036 (Projected)

If you have 1 Bitcoin you're breathing rarified air at this point-don't forget your oxygen tank.

Seventh Halving: 2036-2040 (Projected)

1 coin? A WHOLE coin? What are you, crazy? Fuhgedaboutit! We'll firmly be in the age of satoshis at this point--probably for a long time already.

British HODL is an interesting character. His channel: https://www.youtube.com/@britishhodl23

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