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Fiat versus bitcoin during war

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Tl;DR: Bitcoin is great for both large and small amounts, fiat is only good for small amounts. When your life is on the line, tangible assets (like food, bullets, fuel, etc) will always prevail.

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I see many people arguing over the relative merits of bitcoin versus fiat in times of war/crisis/etc.

Since the very unfortunate people of Ukraine are involved in the first conflict where this has come up on any real scale though, clearly no one can speak with certainty on this issue yet.

That said, I suspect the likely answer (at this point in time) is that it would depend on the amounts in question.

Since fiat is currently more widely accepted, people are probably still wise to keep practical amounts of physical cash (1k$-$5k USD or equivalent) for desperate times. They should expect to pay much higher prices for goods though, as cash (or any intangible asset) quickly loses value in times of scarcity and bartering quickly becomes the norm. After all, neither fiat nor bitcoin (nor gold, etc) will be of much use relative to food and fuel if you're starving or freezing to death. I personally would be very hesitant to accept fiat in such circumstances as it can be both quite easily counterfeited or stolen from me by others. But that's just me and fully acknowledge the fact I'm comfortable with using bitcoin already.

So what about bitcoin during these uncertain times? Yes, there have been encouraging stories about people selling cars for bitcoin and this is what I imagine the future of such conflicts will look like once it becomes as widely accepted as fiat. But the true value is in actual wealth preservation. Think you're going to be able to carry your retirement accounts across the border in cash? Think you can pick up your vacation home and move it to somewhere else? Hard to carry fine art, jewelry, or gold bullion on your back when you're fleeing for your life or crossing borders riddled with guards with sticky fingers.

This is where the real use case for bitcoin is as far as I'm concerned. Large amounts of wealth that can now easily travel with you anywhere in the world, at any time. It is truly an unbelievable invention in this regard.

Of course, it would be unreasonable to expect such a system to work if only the "good guys" get to use it. Indeed, bitcoin will likely be used to circumvent sanctions, buy illicit goods, etc. But so will cash. And only one system can truly claim to protect the wealth of every human on earth who cares to use it and preserve its value into the future.

Is it volatile in the near term? Yup, so is cash. Will volatility matter when you have a gun to your head or your government turns against you? Ask the people of Russia or Ukraine what they think about that now.


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