TL;DR — I'll show you that it's mathematically impossible (under some assumptions, of course) that LUNA's price will go back up to its' glorious days again.

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Let's do some meth—umm I meant math!

There are some important assumptions we need to make. This mini-analysis assumes that:

• UST will be pegged back to around USD $1.00, and
• LUNA (and Do Kwon) can fully gain investors' trusts, and
• LUNA tokens won't be burned significantly to its' supply on March-April when it was trading for more than USD $100 per LUNA (very unlikely, which is why I put this as an assumption).

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Goal: we want to calculate the minimum price of LUNA that is needed to get to its' market cap at ATH ($116/LUNA), considering the current supply of LUNA or May 20, 2022's circulating supply.

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Step 1: Recall that Market Cap (in cryptocurrencies) is calculated by the following:

MC [$] = Circulating Supply [tokens] * Price per token [$/token] 

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Step 2: We want to calculate LUNA's market cap when it was at ATH.

2a) According to the data from messari.io... On April 4, 2022: LUNA's circulating supply was 353 million tokens.

April 4, 2022: LUNA was trading at USD $116.43 with 353 million tokens circulating.

2b) Using the equation from Step 1, Market Cap (MC) on April 4, 2022 is then the following:

MC @ April 4 [$] = 353,128,511 * 116.43 

2c) Plug it into your favorite calculator and you get:

Market Cap of LUNA at ATH ($116.43/LUNA) on April 4, 2022 = $41,114,752,536

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Step 3: Let's calculate how much LUNA's supply jumped by, from April 4 to May 20.

3a) On May 20, 2022, LUNA went to the moon... in terms of its' circulating supply. It had 6.53 trillion LUNAs circulating.

May 20, 2022: LUNA was trading at a fraction of a cent with 6.53 trillion tokens circulating.

3b) We want to calculate the number of times LUNA's circulating supply jumped by between May 20 and April 4:

Number of times LUNA's supply jumped by = Circulating Supply @ May 20 [tokens] / Circulating Supply @ April 4 [tokens] 

3c) Substitute in the variables and the equation becomes...

Number of times LUNA's supply jumped by = 6,533,856,234,794 / 353,128,511 

3d) Plug them numbers into a calculator and we get:

Luna has 18,502 times MORE tokens in circulation in May 20 compared to April 4!

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Step 4: Get the answer to our goal — the minimum price per LUNA needed to get to the market cap at ATH, which was when LUNA was about $116 per token.

4a) Let's not forget our Market Cap equation back from Step 1. If we are to translate our Goal into a mathematical equation, we'd get the following:

MC @ April 4 [$] = Circulating Supply @ May 20 [tokens] * Price per LUNA [$/token] 

4b) Let's re-arrange the equation so we can understand the Goal better:

Price per LUNA [$/token] = MC @ April 4 [$] / Circulating Supply @ May 20 [tokens] 

Goal: we want to calculate the minimum price of LUNA that is needed to get to its' market cap at ATH ($116/LUNA), considering the current supply of LUNA or May 20, 2022's circulating supply.

4c) In order to use our answer from Step 3d, we can think of the equation above as this:

Price per LUNA [$/token] = MC @ April 4 [$] / (Number of times LUNA's supply jumped by from April 4 to May 20 * Circulating Supply @ April 4 [tokens]) 

Which is

Price per LUNA [$/token] = MC @ April 4 [$] / (18,502 * Circulating Supply @ April 4 [tokens]) 

4d) Plug in the numbers using our answer from Step 2c and the information from Step 2a...

Price per LUNA [$/token] = 41,114,752,536 / (18,502 * 353,128,511) 

4e) Grab your lovely calculator again...

Price per LUNA needed to get to the market cap at ATH on April 4, 2022 = $0.0063/token

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Conclusion

It won't even get to $1 per LUNA.

Okay okay, since you insist. Let's math it again. Suppose LUNA gets to $1 today, that means the market cap of LUNA becomes:

MC [$] = Circulating Supply of LUNA @ May 20 [tokens] * Price per LUNA [$/token] 

Plug in the numbers from Step 3a:

MC [$] = 6,533,856,234,794 * 1 

And you don't even need a calculator to get:

Market Cap of LUNA, if it were to get to $1 per LUNA = $6.53 trillion

Thus, LUNA's market cap would be much bigger than BTC... and the entire cryptocurrency market cap.

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Cheers y'all, have a great rest of the week!????