Good times come, TA suddenly becomes an exact science (sigh)

"Charts showed classic Wyckoff distribution"

"It was there all along"

"I called the bottom in November"

"XRP breakout was in the charts"

and such

Experts from all over the place claim they posses extraordinary powers of predicting the future by drawing lines on crypto charts.

And before you disagree with me, let me state my point first: Technical Analysis is a useful tool, but it is NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE THAT RELIABLY CAN TELL THE FUTURE. It cannot guarantee a predictable outcome.

It's especially funny to see how "XRP breakout was in the charts" let's dwell on that.

First of all, and TA folks will have to agree with me, a breakout pattern in the chart can lead to one of two outcomes: a breakout or a failed breakout. Every month, breakout patterns form in large-cap alts and you can read it in the news (SOL/ADA/MATIC forms a breakout pattern), only few of those breakouts actually play out XRP style. In most cases, these result in failed breakouts.

Moreover, when Robinhood delisted a bunch of alts we saw them all tank 30% within hours.

Could lines in charts have predicted the SEC calling most alt-coins securities in their Binance and Coinbase lawsuits?

Before the XRP breakout that happened, there was indeed accumulation by big wallets in the charts. And the news of this accumulation were going on for literal months and years, for the entire duration of the lawsuit. Did it mean Ripple was gonna win all along? Did it mean Ripple was gonna win in July 2023?

No, it can only be reasonably interpreted as the sign of belief by big wallets that Ripple is going to win the case eventually. Big wallets were betting on this outcome. They could have been wrong though. Or it could have been a long play to lure in more exit liquidity into a failing project (there are countless examples of projects doing exactly this). Only retrospectively can you definitively tell which of these happened.

Now, here's how the TA illusion works:

TA points to a possible outcome:

a) This outcome happens –> TA is law!

b) This outcome does not happen -> your TA isn't good enough, but TA is law because it worked for someone else

Kudos to all those who saw it coming and made profit! And those who didn't see it coming and made profit! Profit is good, still it doesn't make astrology an exact science.