Here's an idea: we've been in a consolidation phase since February last year.

So here's my theory on the current Bitcoin price action. We all remember when BTC was flying to the moon back in early 2021, when the price was climbing from around about $10k all the way up to $64k at its first peak. Then we hit that correction.

Well, what if $64k was the "peak" and we have been a stale market ever since? Hear me out on this one.

One of the metrics I like to keep an eye on is the 20W SMA and the 21W EMA which among those who follow Benjamin Cowen know as the Bull Market Support Band or BMSB. Back when BTC was going truly parabolic the price was close to 100% extended from the BMSB, basically begging for a correction. Price action slowed down but we didn't see the crazy sell-off that typically comes with a true crypto-winter. We all know what happened next, BTC found resistance at $30k, bounced back to $69k, and has been dumping ever since.

Now I know $69k is a bigger number than $64k, but in my mind $64k was much more significant because of how quickly we got there. Since then we have chopped back and forth with the BMSB and BTC hasn't really done anything too interesting. If you take a look at BTC's price action since the run up it looks like this:

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Choppy

This does not look bullish, nor would I say it looks bearish. In my eyes it looks stale. Nothing but sideways action.

What can we interpret from this data? Well, in my mind it looks like we could very easily continue to drop down to the $30k range before we see a correction so hang onto your butts if that ends up being the case. However, I also think this means we may have already started the reconsolidation phase of the Bitcoin market cycle. Let's take a look at what the market looked like just before BTC went parabolic.

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Pre-rally price action

Pre-rally price action

Before BTC shot up like a rocket, the price was waffling between roughly $7k and $11k and was functionally rangebound for 70 weeks! That's well over a year for BTC to do basically nothing before enough pressure developed for the price action to take off!

With that as context, we are currently on week 60 of being rangebound between $30k and $64k, so I would expect at least another 10 weeks of BTC not doing much, but realistically I think we have an ever longer time frame on our hands. Market sentiment is low, many are experiencing what feels like a bear market for the first time and they are rightly uncomfortable. I'm sure some are questioning whether buying more BTC with their next paycheck is a smart move or if they got duped. Right now is a rough time to be in Crypto.

So, with all that in mind, it's time for me to make a wild prediction about what the market is going to do in the future. Well, for starters I think the price of Bitcoin will go up, but probably not for a while. Looking at the chart below it's possible we could hold support at $36k, but that's more a hope of mine than any real attempt at technical analysis.

Fingers crossed at $36k

"Short term" I think that BTC is in for a bumpy ride, either continuing to chop between $30k and $60k for a while or maybe holding at that $36k line and slowly working it's way upwards. Either way I do not think we are going to be going parabolic any time soon. For that to happen we need a lot of liquidity to be removed from exchanges. As order books dry up it will bring higher prices. I think that is something that will take months to bring to fruition, but I also think it is inevitable. Bearish markets are when only the truly steadfast believers continue to gobble up the liquidity. Once those HODLers have refilled their bags enough, supply will start to dwindle and price action will start to trend upwards.

So, with all that in mind, keep buying your bitcoin whenever you have the cash, and do what you can to remove it from exchanges when it makes financial sense. I know the fees can be a bitch and a half when you are dealing with small dollar amounts so do what makes sense for you, but if you can, get your coins off exchanges and into private wallets to do your part in removing coins from order books and liquidity pools, helping to drive price action in the direction we all want to see, up.

Thank you for coming to my TAd Talk.

No that is not a typo.