Here's why most people will repeat all the same mistakes (and we can already see it right now). Why we keep seeing so much of the same in every cycle, and people don't seem to ever learn. And why even crazy macros haven't made that big of a dent in the lo

This is the reason why I keep telling people. don't expect things to be much more different, much less expect too many people to have learned their lesson.

A new cycle will come, and people will once again repeat all the same mistakes.

There might even be a new batch of newbies shilling LUNA, UST, or a new algo stablecoin, say they don't see a problem with leaving money on an exchange, FOMO into meme coins and shitcoins, think Binance is trustworthy, do all their trading on Ronbinhood, or advise to use Ledger as the best hardware wallet.

I've been in crypto for a decade. I've seen multiple cycles. And I used to think: "surely people aren't gonna make that same mistakes now, everyone knows what happened last time".

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• And yet again, most people prefer to buy high during the FOMO phase, and panic once the price gets too low.
• They stay on the sideline when prices are battered.
• They return to meme coins, only remembering how high they can go.
• They will even go back and pump the same projects that had their share of failures.
• They will continue to pour money into obvious scams like Safemoon, Hex, etc...
• They forget that the utility, tech tools, benefits are all still there even if Binance is in legal woes.
• They will go all in at some random price, but waiting for some elusive 10x or arbitrary number that may never happen.
• Even if their coins does do 10x, they will continue to see if it goes higher, because they have no real plan much less any discipline.
• They buy alt coins when it's already alt season and everyone is bullish on them. And become Bitcoin maximalists when everyone is bearish on alt-coins.
• If they see that an alt-coin reached an ATH in the past, they think "surely it will at least go that high in the next bull run".
• They become emotionally attached to a project, ignoring the con arguments. Defending it like it's their local sports team.
• If their coin goes down, they will keep buying the dip, falling for the sunken cost fallacy.
• etc....

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In short, they tend to do a lot of things backwards.

Why?

The simple reason: emotions.

Most people don't actually have any plan, don't use discipline, don't really do that much research, don't pay attention to actual data, don't have any strategy in place for different potential scenarios.

They just react.

And they react with mainly their emotions: like panic or fomo. With long periods of anxiety in between.

Those same reaction that we see in every cycle, the same mistakes that keep getting repeated, the inability for people to remember what happened last time, the lack of discipline, is why history repeats itself a lot more than it should.

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But what about the recessions, macros, etc? Surely this time it will be different.

We've already seen over 6 months of crypto ignoring macros. The market rallying during a barrage of global financial crises.

And it's showing its own cycles are stronger than macros. We've had one of the biggest rally happen in the middle of a war, global recession, stocks struggling, and even banks failing. Including the key banks that major crypto exchanges relied on for liquidity.

Also keep in mind that Bitcoin crashed months before the recession, the war in Ukraine, before Fed rate hikes, etc...

So even the crash and bear market didn't happen because of macro economic contagion, it happened when the stock market was climbing to new highs, and before the sky started to fall.

And despite a pandemic, a war, threats of nuclear war, a global recession, inflation, Fed rate hikes, an energy crisis, a stable coin failing, a major exchange collapsing, Bitcoin has maintained its usual course and cycles, and had its mildest bear market, falling less than in previous bear markets.

But anyone with access to a chart for Bitcoin can see that this isn't really a market that follows macros.

There was no global crisis or financial market implosion in sight that could caused all its cyclical major crashes. It did that on its own.