I did the math and I can't retire until BTC hits $100 million per coin, FML

tldr: Crypto is not going to make me rich and I'm going to work until I die.

I'm aiming for $100,000 a year passive income in my retirement. (EDIT: the 100k is my estimate for what I want my future income to be, not what I'm making right now. I raised it to account for future medical expenses, and padded it so I could spend more during my retirement than what I can afford right now)

That seemed attainable to me and not too crazy of a goal. I felt I could reasonably retire early in 10 years, or even in 5 if crypto really goes crazy.

But then I actually did the math, with all the taxes and everything taken into account, and crypto isn't going to help me much at all, actually. It really deflated my hope that crypto will make me rich. Unless you're a whale, a normal person with a few thousand in crypto right now will not be a millionaire or retire comfortably unless the price of your coin does 1000x from here. It's possible, but not likely.

Here are my calculations, working backwards, step-by-step:

$100,000 final take-home net income. This what I want to end up with to pay for my yearly expenses and to not have to work.

~$120,000 pre-tax gross income. I'm assuming 15% combined long term capital gains tax, for federal and state. This tax rate varies of course depending on your state. I use this to estimate: https://smartasset.com/investing/capital-gains-tax-calculator

~$3,000,000 stock/bond portfolio needed to safely withdraw 4% from (to get that $120,000). The Trinity study is based off of a traditional stock and bonds portfolio. There is no SWR established for crypto portfolios.

~$5,000,000 crypto portfolio I need to sell in order to get that $3m traditional portfolio. 40% tax. Again, roughly estimated from this https://smartasset.com/investing/capital-gains-tax-calculator

If I have like 0.05 BTC, which is a lot imo, that means I would need BTC to hit $100,000,000 in order for me to get the $5m I need to retire.

You can sneer at that 0.05 BTC and say just invest more, but I don't think most people would have $2,000 lying around to throw into crypto.

So I don't know about you, but BTC is not going to hit $100 million per coin. I'm certainly not going to rely on that to happen to fund my retirement.

You can adjust the numbers and say well maybe you just need $50,000 to live in your retirement or you might have 0.1 BTC already. That still means BTC has to hit $50 million a coin to make retirement happen. Or say you're well off or super lucky already and have a whole 1 BTC. This still needs the price to hit $5m to retire, when most of the bullish predictions now are only around $1m per BTC.

You can tinker with the tax percentages or whatever for your country/state (or correct my calculations above; I'm not an accountant), but I think the ROI needed are still astronomical and I (and you) need more realistic expectations.