Implied volatility predicts BTC returns!

Been thinking about how Bitcoin’s implied volatility (IV) is kind of underrated as a predictive signal. Since it reflects investor sentiment and risk premiums baked into options prices, it acts as both a fear gauge and a measure of speculative behaviour.

IV is basically what the market expects future volatility to be, reverse-engineered from options pricing. And for BTC, it tells an interesting story:

• High IV → Traders bracing for bigger price swings (regulatory moves, macro shocks, etc.). Historically, higher vol often comes with price drops.
• Low IV → Market expecting calm. But if it stays low for a while, could be a sign of complacency—like the market’s sleeping on potential risks.

Here’s a graph showing how IV compares to BTC’s realized volatility over time:

https://preview.redd.it/8o6sgaeclwie1.png?2642&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5fbaa80e1352c4eb2a1955ecba2165c50e8576f

What’s really interesting is that low IV actually correlates with lower future BTC returns, which is kinda the opposite of what theory would suggest. Also, when IV runs hotter than realized volatility (RV), it often signals incoming market stress.

Been digging into this more, and the patterns are pretty consistent. Might be worth paying attention to.