Is Bitcoin halving irrelevant?

Everyone here knows that Bitcoin has a 4 year halving cycle which reduces the new supply coming in the market. This causes a supply shock which leads to an increase in the price of BTC which is usually followed by a new ATH price.

However, one important factor is liquidity! If there’s no money in the market, instead of the price going up, it will lead to a lower demand as some people will consider buying alternative assets to BTC or even sell to maintain liquidity.

So is money supply a more important metric to look at?

So when we look at the charts for Global M2 money supply: It seems to be having its own 4 year cycles which coincidently also coincides with BTC halving! This increase in money supply is directly correlated to the price of Bitcoin, further cementing BTC as a hedge against inflation.

Currently, M2 is decreasing at a very fast rate, thanks to the rate hikes. Fed data shows that M2 is contracting at its fastest rate in the last 60 years. We probably won’t see a bullrun if the Fed does not Pivot.

Note: M2 typically refers to a measure of the money supply in financial terms that includes both cash and certain types of deposits.

Is BTC halving just a catalyst for the bull cycles every 4 years? Is M2 the real reason behind these bull runs? Has M2 bottomed and it’s time for Fed to pivot? Please share your thoughts!

PS: Posting charts in the comments section as unable to add here

Edit: as commented by someone, the 4 year cycles M2 is having also coincides with the elections in the US.