Supply Shock in short is the idea that a limited availability of supply, can cause the value of an asset to go up. With ~600K Moons burned equal to .75% of the supply in just 4 months the question becomes is supply shock for Moons possible?

To try and answer that we're going to look at a few key factors:

1. What does Moon Supply look like?
2. What does Moon Volume look like?

From there we will look at a conclusion: What does this mean for creating Supply Shock?

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What does Moon Supply look like?

Sitting at a marketcap of ~$10M with a hard capped supply of currently ~80M tokens, Moons are a little different from most other low cap tokens, the circulating supply is almost entirely owned by individuals with no lock up, or slow unlock that is meant to limit availability to potential buyers.

For some other crypto assets that means only a small fraction of their circulating supply is able to be bought and sold at one time.

What this means is hypothetically all Moons (minus the ~1M in the community Pool) could be bought and sold at any time. This makes 79M out of 80M Moons hypothetically available to be bought and sold on the market.

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What does Moon Volume look like?

Looking strictly at /u/krakenexchange we can see over the last 7 days an average of 232K Moons have been traded per day.

In total there are 15.7M Moons sitting on Kraken, however based off historical information we can say that we are looking at availability of supply at the current price in the hundreds of thousands*.

*^{This information is a rough estimate based off historical information and can easily change based off any increase in buying or selling pressure.}

To confirm availability of supply we can look at the Moon Order Book on Kraken and see that a total of 443K Moon are sitting in open sell orders between $.125 and $.165

Remember: order book shown is based off cumulative demand/supply

NOTE: Kraken is not the only way to buy/sell Moons buts it represents 65% of the trading volume in the last 24 hours. So Kraken demand represents a good gauge of the total market.

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What does this mean for creating supply shock?

Before we get into our conclusion, it's important to note that supply shock is based off "availability of supply" and not total supply. It's completely possible to have an asset with a high supply and a limited availability. (Bitcoin is a good example of this)

With that said, lets answer the question is a supply shock for Moons possible?

I think the answer to that question is a mix of yes/no - depending on the time frame we're looking at. If we are looking at short term, no we're not looking at any immediate supply shock. However if we zoom out and look at a longer time frame, the answer becomes a potential yes. With the ecosystem burning ~600K Moons in 4 months (.75% of the supply) we are definitely looking at the potential to create long term supply shock especially with (current) low availability of the supply at the current price.

What will actually happen is too be determined, but it's easy to see how a continuous slow burn from ecosystem utility could create supply shock later down the road, especially with the supply of Moons hard capped.