Solana isn't as popular as it seems. Through false metrics, it attracted investors who believed in an inflated and fake activity. A long, thought-provoking thread...
Solana saw an explosive growth in the last bull-run. Among the reasons were low fees, low block time. But today we will talk about other key reasons: fake TPS, fake DAU, fake TVL • fake decentralization • fake supply • Dirty money
Let's start with the famous part, and then go into the "unknown" ones. For a long time, Solana has been shilled by influencers for its high number of fake transactions per second. Why? You decide. @solana main explorer doesn't show real TPS. Why? You decide.
A large portion of txs comes directly from consensus txs, a design choice. High transactions has nothing to do with usage. Doing some easy calculations on Solana compass, we can see that: • On av. 4k TPS • 90% are vote txs • Only 10% are real txs 4k tps? Only 400 real tps!
Wait! But 400 tps is still an incredible metric! Yes... but no. Let's start skimming this number to arrive at a more truthful one. First data to bear in mind: Failed transactions ???? Around 13% of Solana txs are failed txs, but are counted in the tps. 400 - 13% = 348tps
Oh and about them, I wasn't able to determine how many of them are counted in the tps on the explorer. Not sure. I counted all of them anyway. Sol did too for some outages, stating they were able to "handle" 400k txs... you wish!
We now have to acknowledge another thing. Due to Solana design and low fees, lot of bots sign txs on the chain. But how many? Up to 98% of transactions are made by bots. 348 - 98% = 7tps made by humans Here's some on old chain analysis made by @runkellen on @flipsidecrypto
All blockchains have bots. But Solana has more... way more. Amount of daily txs per active address(16/04): $MATIC: 6.6 $AVAX: 15.7 $ETH: 2.8 $FTM: 7.7 $NEAR: 6.5 $EGLD: 14.5 $BNB: 3.1 And $SOL:117 Or 7.5x times of the highest.
117 txs per active wallet would mean that the average user on Solana should do on AVERAGE: • 117 txs per day • 3500 per month • 42700 per year A clear and simple proof of how easy it is to see that SOL is full of bots.
Let's say we want to calculate how many txs would be made if SOL had normal txs per address. The average for the chains considered is 8txs. On 16/04 SOL had 226k DAU @nansen_ai
. 226k * 8 = 1.8mln daily txs That equals to 21 tps, or 41 with $AVAX numbers. 10/20 times lower!
FAKE DAU
How many are real? Data from Nansen: 286k Daily active accounts: • 213k wallets • 14,7k token accounts • 57,9k program accounts 20% of all daily active accounts are programs.
It's well documented but worth mentioning. It helped SOL to increase in value during the bull-market and his defi look way better than it was. Out of 10.5B TVL, 7.5B were FAKE! 70% of the TVL was fake. Why didn't Sol team notice? You decide.
FAKE DECENTRALIZATION
A network can be considered decentralized when no single entity can control it. Now, a big problem of Solana is relying on vertical scalability. What does it mean? Solana nodes are extremely expensive.
You can look at docs for recommended hardware but keep in mind that big validators run on 10gps and not 1 + have dedicated GPUs = even higher costs. + No minimum stake for validators, that has to pay to partecipate in consensus each epoch. 3 SOL every 2-3 days: 22$ per day now
These enormous costs lead to a consequence: 70% validators aren't profitable. What? Why do they run nodes then? Simply... Cause Sol foundation gives them money to stay profitable. Without his help it'd have way less validators.
Some (still a low number) stake with Jito client and similar, that provides absurdly low costs for nodes. How? Simply, they plan to profit from MEV attacks: auctioning block space to searchers that front-run users reordering blocks. Real decentralization? You decide.
Supply and FTX
Let's start with an interesting lie about Sol supply, an old 2020 story. Solana team lied to the community about his circulating supply. Circulating supply: • Official: 8.5 mln • Real: 20 mln
2020 and 2021 were two incredible years for the Solana foundation!They found a really generous investor that had a famous investing firm, sir @SBF_FTX. They raised 58mln$ that helped Solana boost his ecosystem. Problem? It was later discovered that these generous investments were made by Alameda with money from FTX depositors. Sam was basically a Solana team member, how didn't they notice? You decide. As always, the team had no idea of the situation.
TL;DR: Every chain has been dirty in some way, some more, some less. But it is amazing how much of the dirt is on Solana. Add hacks, downtime, resets, unauthorized unstake, lobbying. It is absurd how easy it is to manipulate the market and the community to invest in Sol.
SOURCE: @Davyegld
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