Its all supply and demand

At the last halving in May 2020 I posted this.

Yesterday there was $15,300,000 of daily demand for newly mined bitcoin at these price levels ($8500 × 1800 coins = $15,300,000). Note if a miner doesn't sell then the miner is the demand (mined coins are not free).

Today the amount of coins mined daily is half (900 coins less), meaning $7,650,000 of that $15,300,000 daily demand now has no new supply to buy.

Where is that demand going to get its supply now? It will have to start outbidding the other $7,650,000 of demand for it.

Never before in bitcoins history has a halving left this much demand (in dollar terms) without any new bitcoin to buy.

Lets do the same equation for this upcoming 2024 halving at todays price.

Right now in 2023 there is $22,500,000 of daily demand for newly mined bitcoin at these price levels ($25,000 × 900 coins = $22,500,000).

After the next halving in 2024 the amount of coins mined daily will be half (450 coins less). Meaning $11,250,000 of that $22,500,000 will have no new supply to buy.

Where is the demand going to get its supply now? It will have to start outbidding the other $11,250,000 of daily demand for it.

If the bitcoin price is still $25k by the next halving, never before in bitcoins history will there have been this much demand (in dollar terms) with no new supply to buy. The price will have no choice but to increase in order to balance supply and demand.

And this is if the price stays at around $25k. If the price is up at $60k by the next halving then the day after the halving instead of being $11,250,000 worth of daily demand with no new supply to buy there will be $27,000,000 worth of daily demand that suddenly has no new supply to buy.

After each halving in bitcoins history there has been more demand in dollar terms left with no new supply to buy. This means each halving has been more significant than the last simply because daily demand has always been higher at every halving than at the last. This is evident in the fact each halving has increased bitcoins market cap by more in absolute terms than the last halving.

This means bitcoin halvings will not start having diminishing effects until daily demand stops growing. So long as daily demand keeps growing year after year each bitcoin halving will be more significant than the last.

This is why the 2024 halving will be even more impactful than the 2020 halving.