Mt Gox, Kobayashi, media and market jitters

As an Mt Gox creditor who's been following the rehabilitation program for years now it's really quite funny to see the media's reaction recently.

The Mt Gox trustee, Kobayashi hasn't exactly had the most efficient track record so far.

In case anyone forgot - he promised to repay everyone LAST october (2023) he caled that the 'deadline' for repayment. Considering he extended the deadline for an entire year it's quite laughable that the media and the entire market start hyperventilating because of 1 payment he made to 1 exchange.

What he did recently is in no way even close to a sell event of 140,000 BTC. A large portion of claims were already sold to Fortress, who are clearly in it for the long game. And those individuals who didn't sell early to Fortress are also not the type to panic sell.

Given Kobayashi's track record, It would be a miracle if he even manages to pay each exchange by the end of July and even if he did there can be a massive variance as to when individuals will actually be able to sell if they even wanted to. Some exchanges have said they may have to wait up to 90 days, some said 10 days.

But again - that's after the exchanges get the coins which hasn't happened yet.

Fortress had $100,000,000 to spend and offered $600 per BTC, so they alone could have bought all claims. I don't know how much they ended up with but I imagine it's a lot. We know they have at least 10% of all claims. And if they were to sell they'd use OTC, they wouldn't dump it on the market.

Also not all the BTC is being distributed as some will be sold OTC for cash claims.

So what we are really talking about here is most likely less than half - maybe 70,000 BTC being slowly distributed over the next few months, maybe to be sold, much of it probably put into diamond hand cold storage.

The media loves to exaggerate and not do their research properly. And the market loves to panic. I see this as a great opportunity to buy the panic selling. As soon as the market realises it was all over exaggerated it will probably rebound fast.