Never Ignore Trends: Many are confident that BTC won't ever drop below 30K because of too much buying power. But here's why you should not rule it out.

I appreciate positivity but I've been holding crypto for 5 years now, and during the first half of those years, I've done as much research as I possibly can on BTC markets because it ultimately affects all cryptos. Bitcoin drops 10% , and most crypts react faster than gasoline poured into a fire.

Wish it wasn't that way. But it is, so I'm stuck paying attention to BTC.

If BTC is guaranteed never to fall below 30K, that means I can safely dump everything into now at $36,734 , and I'm guaranteed never to lose no more than 19% of my investment. That's a pretty good gamble. But...

Somehow I don't feel that confident. I've seen enough and the last 10 years shows a very very consistent trend of BTC losing 80% of it's value from a new ATH before it breaks into another new ATH. It's been stupid consistent that way. Usually there's a long bear market of lower highs and lower lows over the course of 1-2 years before something happens and we are in another bull market.

Past doesn't equal future but in no way can we throw it out the window and say it won't happen again. There's a decent chance it will. And I'm not talking only 5% chance it does.

Any RL degenerate gambler will tell you a long history of trends is likely to be more consistent than not. If you go to a roulette table and see it landed on red 10 times In a row, it might seem obvious that it's bound to change and go black. But it's more likely it will stay hitting red more times times than black. They are right. I've seen it multiple times. If you have a winning football team that went to the playoffs 15 years in a row, granted there is no changes to QB or coach..it's more likely they reach the playoffs again more than they won't. Patriots / Yankees.

Works in harness horse racing too. If a horse shows in it's past 15 races it jumps out to first place in the start of the race every single time...it's very likely it's going to jump into front in the start again..... And they do.

Consistency with patterns had a higher likely hood of continuing that pattern more than it doesn't. It can break that pattern. But don't think for one second that it won't follow the previous trends and go down even further before it goes back up.

But the trend also shows it reaches a new ATH afterwards so... That's a great sign too.

It's more than likely to reach an ATH but also more than likely it will drop below 20k before it does as well .

Just keep your eyes peeled. Don't feel 100% confident it won't That's all.