On chain metrics: 93% of supply hasn't moved in over a month, an all-time high. Key indicators are back to the level of October 2020 levels when bull run to 64k started.

An advantage of Bitcoin over stock market is transparency. Studying on chain data is much more reliable way to analyse market conditions than simply using price action charts.

On chain metrics are currently showing that BTC is on the verge of a parabolic run similar to the rise from 10k to 64k between October 2020 and April 2021.

As per HODL waves 93% of BTC supply has not moved since more than a month ago. This is the highest percentage in entire 12 year BTC history.

HODL Waves

79.5% of supply is in long term hodl wallets called LTH. LTH bottomed in April when BTC reached ATH price of 64k. After strong accumulation for last few months LTH is back to the same level as October 2020 when the last parabolic bull run started.

LTH Supply

BTC balance on exchanges is at the lowest level in over 3 years. Exchange balance went up just before the dump in May. Since then coins have been taken off exchanges and accumulating in hodl wallets. Exchange balance has dropped every single day for last 12 days.

Balance on Exchanges

Half of BTC hashrate went offline in May following China's mining ban. Since then hashrate has relocated outside China and recovered 54% from 90 exahash to 139 exahash. It's back to the levels of January with better global distribution.

BTC Hashrate Recovery

Of course BTC also completed a golden cross few days ago when the short term 50 day average crossed above the long term 200 day average. Short term average going above long term average shows momentum is in favour of the bulls.

November is historically the most bullish month for BTC. Average return in November is 55%. Q4 is also the most bullish quarter (October to December). Bitcoin ETF approval is expected next month. Taproot which is the biggest BTC upgrade since 2017 will be going live in November. Market conditions are overwhelmingly bullish for next few months.