Over 50% of the current Bitcoin supply is in loss. The second-biggest amount ever and a historical indicator that we could be near the bottom now.

When it comes to locating a macro-top or bottom it is obviously impossibly. We can not really predict that but there are indeed metrics that can say whether we are closer to a bottom or not. One very simple metric here is the Bitcoin Supply in Loss. This metric has historically very well predicted roughly the area for the macro-bottom.

What is this metric actually? It looks at the amount of BTC that were last moved and whether the price then was higher than the current price. As the output we get how many BTC right now are in loss, right now the metric outputs 10.6M BTC as the peak of this bear markets supply in loss (so far). That would be 55% of the total supply currently.

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Bitcoin Supply in Loss on Glassnode, chart is from BeinCrypto

As we can see on this chart this peak of 55% was caused by the FTX implosion a few weeks ago. Also there is a clear pattern that over the years there has always been a bigger peak of absolute amount of BTC in loss. And obviously we have not done a new peak yet, meaning that there is likely still some pain left to make this metric ultimately flash a bottom for Bitcoin.

There are a lot of helpful on-chain metrics to get more knowledge on bottom formation but as everywhere, those are just observations and they dont have to be right all the time. I have also covered some other supply metrics recently like the amount of BTC traded in certain price ranges and how much Bitcoin is in self-custody right now, be sure to check them out too.