In a recent “Blockchain Letter” to investors, published on August 22, Pantera Capital — a venture capital firm headed by Dan Morehead — has projected that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $147,843 per coin following the 2024 halving. The firm employed the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio as a price model to evaluate and forecast future pricing trends across each halving event.
Venture Capital Firm Pantera Predicts a Six-Digit Bitcoin Price After the Next Halving
The next Bitcoin network halving is slated to take place in 245 days and it has sparked numerous predictions of a substantial price increase post-event. Around April 24, 2024, the block reward for the network will be slashed by half, from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block after the halving. Pantera Capital, which focuses on cryptocurrency assets and blockchain technology investments, anticipates BTC’s price will hover around $35,448 per coin before jumping 317% into six-digit territory following the halving.
“​​The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. It had a 23% as big an impact on price,” Pantera said. “If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
Pantera explained that it utilized the S2F price model to facilitate the projection of pricing trends. The quantity theory-based model considers bitcoin’s valuation against its scarcity by contrasting its overall stock (circulating supply) with its annual production flow (newly-created coins). It suggests that as BTC’s issuance rate diminishes through consecutive halvings, it becomes more scarce and hence increasingly probable that its value will appreciate over time. Nevertheless, many BTC proponents view this model skeptically after several failed predictions in the past two years.
Pantera’s post-halving price outlook aligns with several other forecasts that incorporate halving as a factor contributing to BTC’s overall valuation. Fundstrat, in an investor’s note published weeks ago, validated its expectation of a $180,000 BTC price following the halving. Similarly, Blockware Solutions speculated on August 18, 2023, that bitcoin could potentially reach $400,000 post-halving. At year-end 2024, Matrixport estimated a BTC value of $125,000, while financial giant Standard Chartered projected $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Morehead expressed in mid-July that markets can endure downward trends and investor pain only to a certain extent. He emphasized that a whole year had transpired since the Terra Luna and SBF downturns and the Pantera CEO insisted that the crypto rally can start now.
What do you think about Pantera Capital’s post-halving bitcoin price prediction? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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