Schrödinger's BTC: It will and will not hit 1 million dollars

I'm doing this post to show how Arthur Hayes's prediction of BTC to 1 million is both right and wrong. He is just very, very, VERY wrong on his time frame.

See this graph that shows the monthly chart of BTC on a logarythmic scale with each bull run increase represented by a green stick. As we clearly see, each % gain is smaller and smaller than before as BTC gets closer to it's "value". This means that in the next bull run BTC should hit approximately 100-130k. Crazy, right?

But if we look at the S&P500 1 year chart I posted right here we can clearly see that in the very long run the US dollar devaluates and wealth is created thus taking the price of stocks to unimaginable highs.

If we had asked someone in 1930 if the stock market was going to go from 5 dollars to 4800 he would say it was impossible. That there is no way that is happening and that there is not enough wealth in the earth for that.

But in the long run thanks to inflation and wealth creation that is possible. So all in all: yes, BTC will hit 1 million dollars. Only that maybe some of us will just not be able to see it.