So yesterday before going to sleep and decided to check the sub to see what was going on and saw myself facing the following post:

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https://preview.redd.it/qhpfqd8zz19a1.png?1348&format=png&auto=webp&s=4390016fedc8b2ede904e74ead3c17b5daed0f64

My first thought was I can't believe I have to do this sh\t again. I say again because I wrote some posts (here and here) showing how all of his predictions for BTC's ATH (when and how much) were wrong. All of them. My point here is that no influencer, even the highly-regarded ones, can predict the market. *It's** nothing personal.

The OP of that post said that Cowen correctly predicted the dominance would be higher at EOY. I'm here showing he was wrong about that, since the value was 47% in June and 42% is less than 47% (yeah, I maths!).

Now let's jump back into the cryptoverse lmaoo and see what he has said about BTC's dominance!

In June this year, when the dominance was 47.58%, he said he believed it would be 50% or more by the end of that month

In a video posted on the 9th of June (watch?v=7oKGQyPFfiQ) his exact words were: "I think we're easily gonna go above 50% in June". He said this around 5:15s of the video. As you can see in the chart below, two days after he said that the dominance started tanking for good:

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https://preview.redd.it/kkvxr150029a1.png?1615&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd1260deed6b2153c4124ff76bdff8008942bc36

He kept saying he believed dominance would go up through his videos, even though it was clearly going down

On a new video 10 days later (watch?v=jHFc0dQakGs), dominance was already 43.89% and kept saying he believed it was going higher. On his exact words, "Bitcoin dominance will continue going higher", said around 9:26s. If it was 47%+ 10 days before, it was not "continuing going higher".

He reportedly excludes stablecoins from the debate

In a video (watch?v=zA30CseQFGw) posted on 17 Nov 22, he said that during "this bear market, it has gone up very, very slowly", and posted this chart:

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https://preview.redd.it/wxjlp6a1029a1.png?1176&format=png&auto=webp&s=7752c47fdf2374f88b42810fd3d62c9714a17123

He claims that because of the higher lows, the dominance was higher [sic]. BTC was at 40.62% when he posted the video. In addition, he excludes stablecoins from this debate. It is unfair, imho. If stablecoins are also crypto, they must be taken into account when calculating dominance.

In addition, Cowen (all influencers, actually) uses manipulation techniques to avoid being burned

"I might be wrong, though" and "It's just dubious speculation" are the sentences he says in almost every of his videos (as well as other influencers). This is a textbook manipulation technique when forecasting whatever, from crypto prices to if it will rain tomorrow. You make a claim that's taken out of nowhere nor is it well-based on anything and after spending minutes talking about it, you just throw a "I might be wrong" at the end of the presentation.

If it's just dubious speculation, why bother in (repeatedly) making them?

Influencers are wrong and wrong again, but people forbid them because they said such statements.

In addition yet, Cowen doesn't use/apply real data science (no influencers, actually)

He literally draws angles and lines and claims he is using data science. Any professional on the field knows that's not the case. This is, in my opinion, yet another manipulation technique where one sandwiches their arguments between science topics to make it more believable. The closest thing on his videos to real DS are log regression curves he posts, which is nothing new and even a regular Joe like me can do.

Not surprisingly, he has a huge fanbase

I know this post will get downvoted to oblivion, because his fans here are quite keen on defending him here on the sub.

At the end of the day, he just wants to sell his premium list

That's about it. He uses charts and lines and make, in my opinion, bold claims to convince people into buying his list. To some it might be worth, but not to me.

TL;DR

OP in the other post said he correctly predicted BTC dominance to be higher by EOY. With 47-ish% at the beginning of June, dominance fell throughout the year, proving the other OP's and Cowen's claims wrong.

Trust no influencer.

EDIT: My points here apply, in my opinion, for almost all influencers. I've edited the titles of the sections and parts of the text to acknowledge that. Ben engaged with me in a DM chat and I'm publicly apologizing if my words were harsh to him or anyone else. My opinion on influencers, though, remains the same.