Simple analogy for why you shouldn't doubt the halving.

Halving events are when issuance is cut to miners, who generally create steady sell pressure because they sell their rewards to pay for costs like electricity.

Price is the outcome of supply and demand. So here's a little analogy of why the halving affects price:

Imagine there was a popular bakery that made pies. Every year, it decides to cut production in half. During seasons like summer (bear market) where people are conscious of their fitness and diets, this effect isn't really seen.

But when the holiday season starts, suddenly pies are in very high demand. Or maybe there's a TikTok trend about buying this bakery's pies.

But unlike a logical business that would ramp up production to meet demand, this bakery produced half as many pies this year than last year.

How would you think that affects the price of its popular pies?

So, the halving affects price by cutting the steady sell pressure from supply issuance. During a bear market when demand is low, the effect isn't seen. But as soon as there's any spike in demand, it causes an over-reaction in price compared to before the halving

This doesn't guarantee a bull run, but we all know that big price fluctuations usually lure in more market activity, which then potentially leads to a bull run.

As long as you are optimistic there will be any demand for BTC/ETH/crypto in the future, the effects of the halving will be felt. They may be delayed due to economic circumstances, but that supply issuance isn't ever coming back.