The best indicator: No TA, just the Production Cost of one Bitcoin has been perfect to call every bottom.

There has been a try to search for the “perfect“ indicator to look for every bottom on the higher time-frame. Mostly with no success as especially this bear market showed how nearly every TA indictor has been broken at a certain point as the markets were just too volatile for them, switching them up with every second candle and thus the do not give any “good“ predictions to where we could be right now in market phases.

But if there is one thing that is always consistent with Bitcoin and a crucial indictor on what state the market and its participators may be in right now is the: Production Cost of one Bitcoin.

The miners are very deeply connected to every move that BTC does as their whole revenue depends on it. So it is obvious that if the price is at the same level of the production cost for 1 BTC, it is very low and being too long on this level would very quickly put many miners out of business.

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Chart from Charles Edwards on Twitter

Here we can see that Production Cost as the red line. Every time BTC price went below the cost of producing one BTC, it has been very short-lived. Yes, since 2018 there has barely been a period where we have been below it again, at most a few day. Seems like in the current years it is by far the best indicator to locate a bottom, a short-term and long-term bottom both.

This cycles FTX collapse is the best example of that. We went below it just for a few days before being above it again as the price rallied a bit. And even the SVB collapse bottom could have been predicted through the Production Cost.