What the market doesn't know or doesn't understand, can't be priced in.

How much does the average person know about crypto and blockchain?

How much do people trading crypto, even so called experts, and people within the space really know about the tech and its benefits?

Do people really know what's been going in crypto outside the price?

Not many people are aware of what a smart contract can do, what blockchain can do that's different, the implication it has across many major industries, all the major companies that have actually already jumped on this technology, what major companies are already doing with smart contract/blockchain/crypto, the growth in tech development in the last few years, the growth in actual usage each cycle, the growth in adoption, etc...

If you were to ask the average person to name 3 things that either crypto, blockchain, or smart contract can do to benefit a business outside of payment/currency and purely as a tech, would they know any of them? Would they be able to name at least 3 of the many major and well known companies using either crypto/smart contract/blockchain for their business?

If you were to ask the average person to name some of the many services you receive when using blockchain, or even just the tech advantages of crypto outside of payment, how many would they be able to name?

There's currently over 2,300 companies accepting crypto as payment in just the US, and over a hundred major well known brands. The number of people using crypto for payment has been growing each cycle. If you were to ask the average person to name 3 companies, would they be able to?

Conclusion/TL;DR:

It's very unlikely that the market has priced in what it hasn't even been aware of.

It's more likely that the market is pricing in misconceptions, and what they still think is some worthless digital monopoly money. They are just buying the short term volatility and speculation. They are probably also betting on ETFs to boost that speculation and volatility.

They are still trading something they think is just some digital coins for nerds, hackers, and criminals, to just buy drugs.

They still think it's a currency nobody is using.

They still think there's no significant utility, and it has no future as a technology.

They probably still think that blockchain is also something that no company is using, and it doesn't do anything we can't already do with just a database.

That's what's likely being priced in right now. The short term speculation of the volatility of what is believed to be a worthless currency with no tech and no real future.

1 comment