The price action since the low in June reminds me of the exact same period in 2018 before capitulation

Bitcoin has been going sideways since the middle of June till now, 12 October. This period very much reminds me of that same period in time during the 2018 bear, just before final capitulation. Let me elaborate. First, you see the comparison of the low, percentage drawdown, weeks since all time high, and break moment of the range across 2018 and 2022 below.

​

​

Below in the chart you can see the period that I am talking about. In essence, in the period highlighted by the red circle, Bitcoin went sideways and the trading range became tighter and tighter, without making a new low. In 2018, the range broke very violently to the downside to get to the 2018 bear market bottom at 84% drawdown from all time high.

Bitcoin weekly chart (periods of similarity highlighted by red circle, key period highlighted by blue vertical line)

A comparison of the fractals of all the bear markets shows this in a different way, how in previous bears time-wise, capitulation had not happened yet and there were 50% drawdowns from this point. Note that this chart is a few weeks old so we are actually 337 days since all time high now, very close to when the collapse happened in 2018.

Percentage draw down from all time high across the different bears

​

Now, importantly, I don't mean to doom post - I dont know what is going to happen. I do see the similarity relative to the previous bears and to the 2018 period in particular. On the positive side, we have a lot more mainstream adoption now; on the negative side, we have a lot more global worries now. I primarily wanted to share the data and opinion on the similarities and see what people will say about it.