There is a real possibility that the "bull run" is over. Deploy cash wisely, lots of lessons to take away from the 2018 crash

I just thought I'd make a post as many on the daily thread seem eager to buy up all the dips. I was here in 2018 crash cycle.. and now the market looks and feels just the same as back then too. The exact same sentiment. People buying up dip after dip, just for the prices to dip and dip even more. and many became permanent community members. Same kind of frothy top with lots of garbage. Back then we had XVG in the top, now we have Doge, Shibu etc.

Even in 2018 the initial leg of the crash was wild, and everyone thought it would snap back up very soon. Infact even in May/June 2018 many believed the market would resume. Lots of corrections were bought, and after a while many were down more than 50% of their capital even though they bought after a huge correction.

Ever wondered why NANO has so many reddit subscribers despite very little adoption and even not on Coinbase yet? The answer is easy to put together... It corrected from $40 to $1 and so many bought on the way down and kept doubling down, believing it would snap back up. Not singling out NANO, most of the coin communities were just the same. Most coins corrected as much as 97% from their peak value, and stayed there for months. Many of those who held through 2018-19 did so at an extremely large mark down on their investments.

Right now, the BTC crash from 58k level to 30k invalidated a lot of patterns, mostly invalidated any trend indicating resumption of the bull run in the short time period. If BTC breaks above 45k again, then there is an occasion to be bullish again, but otherwise it would be wise to understand the risks and acknowledge the possibility of a long and drawn out bear market.

When many start believing that "this time it's different", the market has a wicked way of reminding people that it is not so different.

Big money isnt buying these small dips because they know the big correction is coming. If you really think institutions are stepping in and want to buy into crypto, they dont want to buy at $35k when they know they can engineer the prices to much lower levels and buy in there. They have all the tools - from media manipulation, to onchain tricks, to even early inside warnings on regulatory actions before it reaches the average retail investor. Infact many crypto desks assist institutions with pushing the prices down so they can get a favourable entry.

Make no mistake - the crypto market is growing and is here to stay, innovation is happening at a breathtaking pace. But the short-medium term could be a bit wild if you dont understand the risks in this asset class where a 95% correction was the norm for majority of the coins in the last cycle.

My 2 cents - buy the dips if you want to, but always leave extra fiat on the sidelines just in case it corrects further. There is nothing to be gained by going all in at a 15% daily dip or even a 50% dip on alts, when it can correct another 45%.