 | We often say here that this bear market was not as harsh as prior bear markets, because the percentage drawdown (% drop from all time high) was not as severe. This is true in the sense that the percentage drop in previous bear markets was always over 80%, while the drop from $69K (nice) was "only" 77% this time.
Yet expressed in different metrics, this bear market was more severe than any bear market before this one. I'll give a few examples. More Bitcoins were sold at a loss during this bear marketIf you look at the coins sold at a loss, the current bear market is already more severe. Over 136 million Bitcoin were sold at a loss, much more than any previous bear market.
Bitcoins sold at a loss during all bear markets. Source: Glassnode This bear, Bitcoin was more oversold and the strength in the market was lower relative to prior bear marketsOn a monthly timeframe, the RSI (strength in the market) and MACD (in this case how oversold Bitcoin is) went significantly lower than in prior bear markets. This shows how bad this bear market was (and partly still is). The relative strength index (RSI) reflects the strength in the market at a moment in time. In past bear markets, weekly RSI hit oversold levels. The RSI hit its lowest value at 40 in 2022. The MACD is a trend-following indicator and can help gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold. The MACD is displayed at the bottom in the chart below. It was never more oversold. All-in-all, these data suggest that this bear marker was still very severe and on some levels worse than prior bear market. It does not "feel" like it though, at least to me. Is that perhaps because there is quite a lot of adoption? Do you have any other comparisons to prior bears? [link] [comments] |
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