Summary of the problem at hand.
There is NOT an immediate risk. Your bags are safe, but changes are needed to keep it that way.
The incoming risk is becoming more apparent- the timelines are highly debated. The Google Willow news sparked concerns of how fast that might occur. The timing is no longer worth debating- these advancements are going to continue to be published and people will demand safeguards.
Yes, it affects all systems, not just crypto. Hence, not a crypto narrative.
This incoming risk moved slow, and it seemed it may never be a concern. That has changed.
Thankfully, there has been extensive work to create cryptography that can withstand the capabilities of quantum computing.
No, this isn't a Super Computer that runs everything exponentially faster. Instead, it is capable of running certain algorithms exponentially faster. This is why Shor and potentially more advanced algos will be able to break today's encryption.
No, this is not about SHA-256. It is about RSA and ECDSA. These are the digital signatures that allow you to authorize transactions with your wallet or private key. Updating these is not a simple fork, it won't be backward compatible, and may cause extensive downtime to transition.
Not all keys are exposed- generally it is any that had an outgoing transaction or the Satoshi era wallets that used a weaker form of encryption.
There is a lot of exposure which would be a problem. and the concern is that could escalate a massive sell-off.
The systems we think would be more likely targeted are already working on upgrading. The ones that don't upgrade will become the targets.
There will be cloud capabilities, which would allow low level actors to break into wallets. Crypto does not have any way to prove if they were the rightful owners, and of course we know people find ways to move the funds through mixers. This makes it a very vulnerable target.
TLDR- there no longer are solid arguments for not working on a solution. This is not doomsday, it requires thoughtful solutions, and making the tough choices to move forward.
Why this often appears to be a crypto narrative.
Quantum was developing slowly, and it wasn't clear this would ever become an issue. So, it was dismissed as fud, and perhaps rightly so.
The misinformation around the issue at hand also gave people plenty of reasons to ignore it. Most are addressed above, but I'm sure there will be more raised to debate. But it becomes very hard to convince the masses that anon knows it isn't an issue when Google, NVIDIA, IBM, AWS, NIST, and all governments are talking about it. Even Elon tweeted he is hearing it looks promising.
Saylor dismisses it at every opportunity using many of the above arguments. Those no longer are going to satisfy people. It will be far more effective to start talking about the ways we anticipate solving the issue, and acknowledging the challenges transparently. Otherwise, it looks like the issue is being ignored or hidden.
The crypto projects that have worked hard on this obviously have community members that have been pushing this risk for a while. Turns out they had valid arguments, but were seemingly premature until now. As described above, this doesn't necessarily mean those projects win, and the others lose.
It does mean well prepared projects won't have hard decisions to make, and can continue to focus on their use cases while others begin the extensive analysis and work required. Certainly, that will create opportunities for growth as some projects will likely struggle to properly upgrade.
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