Sure. That's all true. But let's look at why they're saying that.
First off, any time the fed hikes rates to dampen the progress of runaway inflation there's going to be negative growth. There's a big problem with false scarcity right now and resultant price gouging. The oil companies were raping us the last few quarters to make up covid "losses" read losses as, their record profits weren't enough to prove to their boards that they everything they could to profit from the pandemic. Price per barrel was down, yet at the pump they were still fucking us harder than ever before. Jacking up shipping, trucking, travel, and energy costs bring what was necessary. That meant the cost of doing business was higher which translated to higher prices. You'll note that prices at pump dropped quite a bit right around the time they announced the second hike. It's costing more to trade oil. It's going to take a while for price adjustments for everything else to catch up.
Second, this comes after a period of significant economic growth. If you look at gdp by quarter, and don't just look the last two quarters. Here's Biden's stats.
Q1 2021 + 6.3% Q2 2021 + 6.7% Q3 2021 + 2.3% Q4 2021 + 6.9% Q1 2022 - 1.6% Q2 2022 - 0.9%
That makes his current annual average gdp 3.283%
Ideal growth rate is between 2-3%
Source: this article and https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
By contrast Trump's annual average gdp was 1.03% the worst since Hoover. Don't get me wrong, it's a lot better than Hoover's, but that's not really saying a lot. As you can see, he never came close to hitting "ideal."
Trump literally held the record for the worst every quarter in American history at -33.4% (this was largely due to his protectionist policy with China at the start of covid.)
And best at 33.8% (and when he said, "oh, fuck! Nevermind!)
You can look at the raw numbers in that statista link but it only shows the last two years, so you'll have to click "see more data." And do the math. Or you can just read this article:
https://www.thebalance.com/gdp-growth-by-president-highs-lows-averages-4801102
So to say we're not really in a recession, despite what the numbers currently say isn't really too far off base. It's not 100% on base. Kinda leading off somewhere between first and shortstop. But they have every right to be confident. This is a corrective measure. Presidents who take office during crisis often get blamed for the crisis.
Look at Jimmy Carter. His gdp was more than triple Trump's, and he took office after Ford (1.57%) Reagan had modest growth over Carter by about . 2% and was lauded because he talked a good game with his trickle down bullshit which did nothing really significant.
Clinton on the other hand did better than Reagan gdp-wise at about 3.9% while inheriting bush's (2.25%) war.
Seeing a pattern yet?
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