We are in a new paradigm: Stop trying to predict.

I cannot state this enough: We are in a new paradigm. It's unbelievable the number of times I have seen the comments in this forum about how the alt season will soon start or how the actual parabolic run would start later this year after the halving argument or how a dip before halving/ATH is expected. All those arguments are made based on 3-4 previous datapoints.

The approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs triggered the end of the first Era and the beginning of the second Era of Bitcoin. In this second Era, nothing is anymore the same as in the first Era. All the previous models (4 years cycle, timing of breaking the previous ATH, diminishing returns etc.) are now obsolete. My recommendation is to stop trying to predict the next months with the lens of the models of the first Era of Bitcoin, because they are not working anymore.

Please consider these points:

• In the last two days, we had ETF inflows which are almost 10-12x the daily supply issuance of 900 BTC.
• The institutions who didn't offer Bitcoin ETFs initially like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo and Bank of America’s Merrill are now offering it to their clients. That leaves just Vanguard as the major firm left.
• The number of trading sessions (based on the past 45 days $200m average inflow per day) for BlackRock to continue to allocate into Bitcoin before they reach a 1% allocation of their current AUM is 495. That's 2 years straight, every day.
• Fidelity has a 1-3% Bitcoin allocation in their "All-in-One" asset allocation funds in Canada, using spot Bitcoin ETFs. It can soon be adapted into US funds as well.
• I am not quantifying the flows from other ETFs like ARKB and BITB. They are also onboarding multiple RIAs, wealth management firms to start allocating soon. Most of them need a 60-90 day evaluation period to onboard for compliance reasons.

TLDR/summary: We are just at the warm up phase. The Bitcoin performance of 2024 and 2025 will shock the world, because for the first time in the history we have institutional Interest/FOMO for an asset that has a finite supply with absolute finality of scarcity. Stop trying to predict or time the market.