Marcel Pechman explains the myth of excess cash in U.S. households and the lack of sufficient savings, and how a U.S. government shutdown could impact Bitcoin.
On the latest episode of Macro Markets, analyst Marcel Pechman examines the current state of the American economy. He references a headline from Barron’s that highlights the disparity between people’s perception of the economy and the objective data.
Pechman delves into the concept of excess savings, agreeing with Barron’s that a significant portion of the United States population lacks sufficient savings for retirement, potentially necessitating longer working years. He notes that household wealth in the U.S. has reached new heights, primarily due to surges in equities and real estate assets.
Shifting his focus, Pechman discusses rising concerns among U.S. consumers about increasing prices, particularly the cost of filling up their vehicles with gasoline. He connects this to the recent surge in U.S. crude futures, influenced by Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend output curbs.
Pechman foresees challenges for President Joe Biden, especially in managing inflation and the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on real estate and the S&P 500. He then addresses the implications for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that if inflation outpaces income growth, it could exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
Moving on to the U.S. budget issue, Pechman explores the possibility of a government shutdown due to disagreements in Congress. In a critical analysis, Pechman questions the use of disaster funds to cover war expenses, drawing attention to the Biden administration’s priorities. He emphasizes the potential consequences and legality of such maneuvers.
Pechman concludes by suggesting that a U.S. government shutdown could trigger a bull run in Bitcoin and advises keeping an eye on this potential trigger for a cryptocurrency rally in early October.
Check out the latest episode of Macro Markets, available exclusively on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.
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