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With this post I want to give you a simplified & summarized insight why BTC is up +4% today but also why in general recent price action doesn't matter.

Introduction

ETF filing, ETF delaying, Ethereum ETF Leak, Blackrock leak... so much nonsense that doesn't matter.Any smart money knows eventually it will come. So pricing it in, adding it to their equation & as factor for risk management and returns.

Anything else in between is sharks eating small fishes thinking they can trade these annoucenements or illiquid driven price action.

let me give you an example :the "ETH ETF leak rumors"

https://preview.redd.it/mqpiiatu7unb1.png?2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=39f2d9ea1f0d7aa8acd71ed312e3fc14fe356dda

Larger Crypto Twitter accounts were spreading misinformation about a possible "leaked ETH ETF" all because BTC was up for "no reason".Reality is, markets have become incredible illiquid and small demand can push up prices heavily after a long sideway move because of stacked shorts around the current price.

In the chart above you can see how the Open Interest fell sharply ( arrows 3rd graph ) because of shorts covering / getting rekt on the spot demand ( SPOT CVD ). Pushed out of range, shorts closed and caused a spike fueling further shorts covering.

Profit was taken suppressing eventually the rise. Shorts were deployed but the sideway movement rekt them and more and more FOMO long chasers joined.

Then a few hours later, the Spot supply is hitting the market completely taking out equal amount of open interest and the price is back at the exact level it was before.

Today +5% BTC Pump

as many have probably noticed, BTC was partly up +5% from the low range yesterday. And again, rumors are spreading. LEAKED ETF APPROVAL? ETF FILING?

https://preview.redd.it/b7psuxmm8unb1.png?2496&format=png&auto=webp&s=23cb0f59b83e3dfaaf1f8374418cfdee2d778c82

Taking another look at the chart it's very easy to understand that this is mostly, again, shorts covering that got hunted by Spot demand.

Simplified here's all the information you'll need:

https://preview.redd.it/cpd736d49unb1.png?2502&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3ed9dcbb8da7b3ed156da59077e58bea68d532f

White arrows = price action following the Data

Yellow arrows = open interest plunge due shorts covering / getting liquidated

Green arrows = strong Spot bidding causing price to jump fueled by shorts covering

yellow arrow ( bottom ) = negative funding rate suggesting a large participants in the market are short. BTC was heavily shorted before both pumps.

Red arrow = decreasing Spot demand and supply hitting the market -> slow drift downwards since squeeze

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But... Why?

Honestly it's very simply : Supply and Demand. We are in an illiquid market where every liquidity is getting hunted by skilled traders, market makers and sharks eat the small fishes that join this mess trying to profit.

Reality is, if you are inexperienced, try to time the market based on "news" currently and especially on high leverage, you are gambling on worse than 50:50 odds. Everyone was incredible bearish, many participated the market with shorts over the last days shorting Bitcoin at 25,2k. This is a dream for accumulating Bulls to squeeze some liquidity into their pockets.

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Psychology reasons : Crypto Space is hungry

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https://preview.redd.it/nl7u7fez9unb1.png?2506&format=png&auto=webp&s=07bb80236b6c9d6e804bf342c95928a2c93987be

Many have joined this space during the volatile time. I think it's clear to everyone that this volatile risky crypto asset is just not like it used to be. We've now been trading in a +30% -20% range for half a year. Even the S&P 500 has more volatile days than Bitcoin right now.

Open interest, Volume, Coinbase Quarter Report & Exchange Data suggest a heavy decline in interest in this space.

And what is the result? A drama hungry driven market sector of all participants being literally bored looking for action. So any small news and rumors are nowadays praised as the biggest news of the year and discussed everywhere although it's been widely known and barely matters.

However, this small attention is enough to move the prices nowadays due illiquidity therefore people get their confirmation it "matters because the chart moved". This is where the psychology traps them into participating in the toxic Player vs Player environment.

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Conclusion:

Nothing matters. This is all short term price action that has barely anything to do with fundamentals, important updates or anything else that matters long term. A simple market with supply and demand on a poker desk.

If markets continue to go sideways and this price action bothers you, you can practise some touching grass and not care about crypto at all and use your extra time in your real life. But you can also decide for yourself to use this time and slow market to educate yourself about the financial world and what actually drives crypto. What asset you want to accumulate, when you expect to take profit and how to execute your investment strategies better.

At the end of the day BTC will always win in the long run against the Dollar. Nothing of this short term price action matters fundamentally. But you can learn from it which might matter. For the journey over the next decade of BTC hitting new highs to maximize your returns and satisfaction joining this space

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Hope you enjoy the read