Why the real bull-run is still coming. My opinion.

I want to make no mistake, I am currently bearish. I think we are in a bear cycle, but am not yet convinced of a bear market. I did some minor TA, some historical research, looked at some outside sources, and have brought together some conclusions of my own. If you didn't know already, we obviously don't know anything about anything - but we can use trends to get a reasonable probability of where things could go next. I'd love other opinions below. Most of my analysis is based on grandpa BTC because, whether you like it or not, grandpa is still the market leader and when he beats the drum, alts march. I will also include links to some sources at the end of this post.

1. I believe we are seeing a run more similar to 2013/2014 than 2017. Although we have had some outside circumstances leading to the crash (such as China cracking down on BTC mining and Tesla removing itself from BTC due to fossil fuel consumption) I do not think anything major has occurred yet to replicate the SEC regulatory uncertainty that suddenly came about. The one issue I could foresee sending us straight to the pits of hell for a few years is the collapse of USDT which is why so many people in the space are watching this case unfold. IF USDT folds, we are all going down for a long time and 95% of the confidence gained in crypto the last few years will be gone (my opinion). But I digress, the other circumstances around crypto have, for the most part, had progress in resolving their issues. For BTC, huge mining farms are now opening locally in places such as west Texas, which, although it may take years to implement is a great sign. Other nations have adopted BTC as a legal tender (El Salvador) and others are moving the exact same direction (Panama and Ukraine).
2. I think administration makes a difference. Although many nations are adopting crypto, tax is getting higher in dominant countries after a conservative spell in many parts of the world. The US has undergone a power change in the last year with tax on crypto as part of the plan. However, this could be a good thing going forward as exchanges being taxed means more regulatory certainty. This is bad for some and good for others but more certainty could provide a more stable market which means more adoption as people consider it a safer investment. Not saying I love this but it does have perks.
3. Corporate adoption is higher than it has ever been and is showing no signs of slowing down in the near future. We have seen Tesla cause a knock to BTC after Musk's decision to depart from BTC due to high electricity consumption, however I do not think this will be a long term issue as too many other companies are incorporating crypto into their forms of acceptable payment. Finance as a whole is incorporating crypto because, surprise, it is a good idea! Many billionaires are backing this push for hopes of future highs and many corporations are trying to rake in crypto reserves to not be left behind.

Finally, lets take a look at some charts and do a ELI5 breakdown:

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2013 bull run and crash.

In 2013 we saw a monumental growth followed by arguably one of the biggest candle wick's I have seen in my entire life as demand was absolutely chugged by the supply being dumped. This caused a huge flash crash, followed by a dead cat bounce, to where we saw a second peak and then a slow, steady down-turn for a few months, turning around for a little in July/Aug 2017. It is also fair to note that the starting point of this bull-run was a little earlier than pictured above where BTC was trading at roughly $10 per coin (shoot me now for not getting in back then). The rise to a closing peak of $166 (or a candlewick high of $260 if you are kinky) shows a 16.6x (or 26x if based on wick) growth from the floor. This is huge, don't get me wrong, but not the levels many maybe expected. Bears come in and drag the market back down by dumping enormous supply. It is important to note that the second peak after the first crash gets rather close to the first peak before continuing down. We then see a stabilization happen as BTC does not return to it's previous floor of about $10 and rather dances just above/below the $100 range (a come down of about 40% give or take, even going to 50% drop). However, not returning below about $60 per coin. Consolidation happens, and things hover for a while.

Now let us look at 2014.

2014 bull-run and crash.

We see next the 2014 run, far more steep and higher highs than ever imagined. BTC rallies from roughly $100 to about $950. This is a 9.5x growth and then we see demand get eaten up by another huge dump in supply. From our floor of $10 about 18 months earlier, this is a 96x growth. Huge gains made, people losing their minds, but we return to a consolidation period. The drop does happen and we witness a bear cycle where many dump their BTC but many hodl, allowing for a new floor to be maintained around the $400 range. As you may notice here as well, the second peak got quite close to the heights of the first peak.

If the left side of that 2013 picture looks remotely familiar, it is because I think we have something similar happening right now, although over a greater period of months. Lets take a look.

2021 current BTC charts.

As seen similarly above, although there was a large rise, we see more stabilization at the top, where resistance was tested multiple times rather than in one big hit. This is a great thing to note as it shows BTC is holding fairly well at it's peak despite large supply being dumped. As can be seen above, we have clearly tested old support levels from April once again in June, July, Sept. All good as there has been a bounce up. However, looking at the floor from March of 2020, we see a bottoming out of about $5500 (I don't want to include too many charts so please look this up). From there, we grew over a year to our max around $60k (or $65k if using wick). That is about an 11x (or 12x if using wick) growth from that floor. Very close to amounts of multiplication like 2013, yet slightly less as we aren't as early to the party.

Conversely, let us take a quick look at 2017.

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2017/2018 bull run and crash.

After 2014 the market consolidated for quite some time before the bull-run of 2017/2018. This graph, although easy to confuse as similar, is vastly different as the second high reached is FAR below the initial high. The candles are enormous with a crash happening suddenly and the second peak coming nowhere near the first. The outside influence on the market caused supply to flood while demand ran dropping the price drastically.

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SO, where do we go from here. From what I can see, we have not experienced outside influence that has caused the general consensus around BTC to be one of pure fear and distrust. I see bounces coming back within spitting distance of resistance lines that were formed by the first peak. I full believe that we are on our way down for consolidation as individuals, companies and nations slowly adopt crypto as a stable enough market. I think flash crashes don't help that but the impact is less severe than it used to be and although gains and losses to be made are massive, there is a slowing decrease in each. 2021's chart looks much more like ones of 2013/2014 where bulls ran out of steam and bears came to take their profits, causing a 40-50% drop, but allowed for consolidation at a much higher floor. In my opinion, this fully contrasts 2017 where we see a steep drop with old resistances nowhere in sight at times. That caused the crypto winter. In all likelihood, I predict another 8-12% drop leaving us around the $32000 - $35000 range while consolidation takes place before launching to new heights in summer 2022. With that in mind, I pit the high of BTC next year round $91k.

Regardless of what happens, the most tried and tested move is to DCA down and ride the wave. Please feel free to comment your thoughts below. What is your TA?

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TLDR: 6-9 month bear cycle predicted, then return of the bull run to highest heights.

Links:

BTC farms in West Texas Argo Blockchain Announces New Texas Bitcoin Mining Farm (fullycrypto.com)

Companies accepting BTC as payment: 172 Companies that Accept Bitcoin [updated September 2021] (paybis.com)

Who could benefit from tax of crypto: New Crypto Tax Law: Good For Some, Bad For Others | Nasdaq