I would like to be the first "Analyst" that claims the current period as the "Apathy Period". No animals around. No bears, no bulls. Just pure apathy.
Although consistently higher than previous "apathy periods", bitcoin search volume is declining, mainly due to the fact that SBF is slowly becoming irrelevant (and hopefully sentenced soon) and we haven't seen any major ponzi schemes, algorithmic stablecoins and custodian wallets shitting the bed.
Now, why am I blabbering? I work as a traditional macro analyst. I get paid to analyze the past and predict the future. And my company tasked me to create a bear case for the current equity market. Now I am not going to post the full report here (you can DM me if you wish) but there's a lot of sketchy and actually scary stuff going on behind the scenes in most major economies (and wait 'till you see what's going on in developed economies). Anyway, without pretending to be Michael Burry, here's a thought: Attention has recently shifted towards the Nasdaq and tech companies. With every company going over their earnings report within 3 seconds before quickly turning into their carefully-crafted AI speech, investors are losing their shit and start throwing money at every company with the only metric being: AI mentions-per sentence ratio. While BTC is trading sideways with decreasing volume. the Nasdaq is up approx. 20% in the past 3 months. Interest rates above 5%? Don't care. What banking crisis? Are we still talking about inflation? It is likely that the Nasdaq is experiencing a "euphoria phase" with companies being priced at 200x earnings (not naming names) thinking that an AI tool that creates custom dialogues in video games will change the world we live in. In the meantime, big bucks have forgotten about crypto. And that's good news! Traction from mainstream media is slowing down. Sophisticated scammers are now looking elsewhere. Failed projects are decreasing. In the meantime, true believers are accumulating in the background. Developers are trying to find solutions to problems. Bitcoin is still running. Think about all the stories from people who actually made money through crypto (and other speculative assets). How did they do it? Well, they accumulated when everyone stopped paying attention, and sold when everyone started doing so. Edit: Welp folks, I guess I kinda jinxed it. Gary Gensler woke up and chose violence. [link] [comments] |
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