You all need to tamper your expectations lol

I keep on seeing people thinking about a 1M bitcoin, but let me present you another possibility (that is still awesome, but IMHO much more probable)

Some people think the crazy 10x+ returns a cycle are still possible but it’s so damn far from the truth. They can’t comprehend exponentials so it’s not surprising.

Basically, it takes 50x more capital to make the needle move from 50K to 100K than from 1K to 2K… so obviously we can’t keep on having 10x+ bull-runs as was demonstrated in 2021

Basically we had:

• 30-40x returns in the 2013 bubble: $30-40 to $1200
• 15-20x from 1.2K to 20K in 2017 bubble
• 3.5x from 20K to 69K in 2021 bubble

The second degree regression would point out to a 1.5x increase from ath to ath in the 2024/2025 bull run.

(We’re obviously front-running / pricing-in the next bull-run bubble early this year with the ETF hype but nonetheless…)

IMHO we’re looking at 1.5/2x local tops for the next few halving as issuance rate is cut in half, thus directly fueling a 2x if the number of available coins stays roughly the same… basically the half the issuance rate means price can only double unless more and more people buy and HODL and create a massive supply shock… but let’s get real it’s not gonna happen. For every legendary hodl’er is a weak-hands-seller so I expect the number of available coins to stay roughly the same.

Also Miners still need to cover expanses. And as the price gets higher more people hit their target and sell cause they can pay up the mortgage or get that lambo or whatever.

Anyways IMO were looking possibly at a 100-150K local top this time around

• 100-150K ath in 2024/2025
• 150-300K ath in 2029
• 225-600K ath in 2034
• 350-1M ath in 2039

All iMHO, but we’re probably at least 15 years away from a 1M bitcoin.

All the above in today’s money, so if we average 2.5% inflation until 2039 that run would be closer to 500K-1.5M (2.5% inflation compounds to roughly 45% cost of living increase in 15 years — 1.025^15=1.44)

I’ll be happy to be wrong but that’s my take anyhow.

The S&P 500 has averaged 100% returns every 7-10 years so this is a LOT better but calm the fuck down thinking your 0.1 BTC will provide your family with generational wealth…