Bull trap or bear tap?

The last few weeks have been full of FUD and now we finally dumped. This was inevitable based on the news.

Where should we start?

• Regulation Uncertainty
• Mt. GOX - Potential dump
• Silvergate Bank.
• Ethereum Upgrade + Release of staked Ether.
• War in Ukraine
• Biden Budget
• Current state of economy.
• Silicon Valley bank
• The Fed increasing rates (maybe)
• Job market still hot

Last week I posted a similar analysis and I wasn’t certain we would go this low. I was wrong, but the plan is still the same.

Generally, when we reach a point of fear and maximum FUD in this Subreddit or on social media. We signal a bottom, or close to. I don’t think we are at maximum fear anymore but we are still very fearful as a group based on the news coming out. Which is reasonable.

We are now in times if uncertainty. These recent pumps can wreck havoc on investor emotions. Do we sell the pump and get out for good, maybe we never hit a new all time high?

Don’t fall for this psychological trap you set for yourself.

The emotions are brutal and hard to manage. Luckily, these emotions you’re feeling often signal the end of a bear run and the beginning of a long accumulation phase.

Remember:

By the time everyone is calling for a recession, we are usually already recovering. There is a reason why 99% of people fail at managing their own investments. They enter way to late.

The stock market and Bitcoin are strongly correlated, as much as we would like this to stop. It likely won’t anytime soon.

The SP500 Is a reliable indicator to see where we are in the market and we just broke out of a 420 day down trend with a huge retest of the trend line. We are now slightly below this support line. We also have daily golden crosses across multiple big funds, all which signal a sustained uptrend.

We often fall below key trend lines when whales stop loss hunt. This creates massive fear and huge sell offs. This is a common bear trap scenario.

The DXY has completed a daily bearish cross and is also in a sustained down trend. This is historically very bullish for crypto. Today the DXY is dumping.

It is reasonable to feel bearish in this current environment, but it’s good practice to do the opposite of what you feel. No matter how you view the economic state or the current market, we have a lot of good social and technical indicators signalling the start of a new bull run coming soon. This will take a long time to play out of course, but the bull run has to start somewhere.

We have had plenty of coordinated attacks on crypto and big shake outs before this is nothing new. The Bitcoin fundamentals are still the same.

So what are your thoughts?

Was bitcoins move to 23k a bull trap, or is this dump a huge bear trap?